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      "rank": 90,
      "rating": -2.758102520264284,
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      "rank_change": -12,
      "prior_available": true
    },
    {
      "team": "Louisiana",
      "conference": "Sun Belt",
      "rank": 91,
      "rating": -2.7932880517710137,
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      "previous_rank": 77,
      "rank_change": -14,
      "prior_available": true
    },
    {
      "team": "South Alabama",
      "conference": "Sun Belt",
      "rank": 92,
      "rating": -2.906390144184182,
      "games": 3,
      "previous_rank": 87,
      "rank_change": -5,
      "prior_available": true
    },
    {
      "team": "Miami (OH)",
      "conference": "Mid-American",
      "rank": 93,
      "rating": -3.088339450808288,
      "games": 3,
      "previous_rank": 100,
      "rank_change": 7,
      "prior_available": true
    },
    {
      "team": "East Carolina",
      "conference": "American Athletic",
      "rank": 94,
      "rating": -3.1194886611554753,
      "games": 3,
      "previous_rank": 98,
      "rank_change": 4,
      "prior_available": true
    },
    {
      "team": "Jacksonville State",
      "conference": "Conference USA",
      "rank": 95,
      "rating": -3.167001258528906,
      "games": 4,
      "previous_rank": 91,
      "rank_change": -4,
      "prior_available": true
    },
    {
      "team": "Oregon State",
      "conference": "Pac-12",
      "rank": 96,
      "rating": -3.439451001576111,
      "games": 3,
      "previous_rank": 113,
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      "prior_available": true
    },
    {
      "team": "Troy",
      "conference": "Sun Belt",
      "rank": 97,
      "rating": -3.952318450571389,
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      "previous_rank": 108,
      "rank_change": 11,
      "prior_available": true
    },
    {
      "team": "Georgia Southern",
      "conference": "Sun Belt",
      "rank": 98,
      "rating": -3.966125964727776,
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      "previous_rank": 97,
      "rank_change": -1,
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    },
    {
      "team": "Old Dominion",
      "conference": "Sun Belt",
      "rank": 99,
      "rating": -4.1352628572151415,
      "games": 3,
      "previous_rank": 93,
      "rank_change": -6,
      "prior_available": true
    },
    {
      "team": "Louisiana Tech",
      "conference": "Sun Belt",
      "rank": 100,
      "rating": -4.184804060007901,
      "games": 3,
      "previous_rank": 79,
      "rank_change": -21,
      "prior_available": true
    },
    {
      "team": "Florida International",
      "conference": "Conference USA",
      "rank": 101,
      "rating": -4.20121405113602,
      "games": 3,
      "previous_rank": 82,
      "rank_change": -19,
      "prior_available": true
    },
    {
      "team": "Sam Houston",
      "conference": "Conference USA",
      "rank": 102,
      "rating": -4.211950030604561,
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    },
    {
      "team": "Massachusetts",
      "conference": "Mid-American",
      "rank": 103,
      "rating": -4.539720205768468,
      "games": 3,
      "previous_rank": 101,
      "rank_change": -2,
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    },
    {
      "team": "Marshall",
      "conference": "Sun Belt",
      "rank": 104,
      "rating": -4.76182923223034,
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    },
    {
      "team": "Colorado",
      "conference": "Big 12",
      "rank": 105,
      "rating": -5.538797953391221,
      "games": 3,
      "previous_rank": 71,
      "rank_change": -34,
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    },
    {
      "team": "Middle Tennessee",
      "conference": "Conference USA",
      "rank": 106,
      "rating": -5.562124294757922,
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    },
    {
      "team": "Ohio",
      "conference": "Mid-American",
      "rank": 107,
      "rating": -5.619162310139162,
      "games": 3,
      "previous_rank": 104,
      "rank_change": -3,
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    },
    {
      "team": "Florida Atlantic",
      "conference": "American Athletic",
      "rank": 108,
      "rating": -5.815259293055883,
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    },
    {
      "team": "UNLV",
      "conference": "Mountain West",
      "rank": 109,
      "rating": -6.0370737116981985,
      "games": 3,
      "previous_rank": 103,
      "rank_change": -6,
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    },
    {
      "team": "New Mexico State",
      "conference": "Conference USA",
      "rank": 110,
      "rating": -6.265968670192971,
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      "previous_rank": 110,
      "rank_change": 0,
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    },
    {
      "team": "Arkansas State",
      "conference": "Sun Belt",
      "rank": 111,
      "rating": -6.476184762342758,
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      "previous_rank": 89,
      "rank_change": -22,
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    },
    {
      "team": "Rice",
      "conference": "American Athletic",
      "rank": 112,
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      "previous_rank": 116,
      "rank_change": 4,
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    },
    {
      "team": "Rutgers",
      "conference": "Big Ten",
      "rank": 113,
      "rating": -6.674862511337097,
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      "previous_rank": 122,
      "rank_change": 9,
      "prior_available": true
    },
    {
      "team": "Kennesaw State",
      "conference": "Conference USA",
      "rank": 114,
      "rating": -6.8701774975131205,
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      "previous_rank": 88,
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    },
    {
      "team": "Missouri State",
      "conference": "Conference USA",
      "rank": 115,
      "rating": -6.9028644509818005,
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      "previous_rank": 95,
      "rank_change": -20,
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    },
    {
      "team": "Hawai'i",
      "conference": "Mountain West",
      "rank": 116,
      "rating": -7.895909061680728,
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    },
    {
      "team": "Boston College",
      "conference": "ACC",
      "rank": 117,
      "rating": -8.655637250054536,
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      "previous_rank": 105,
      "rank_change": -12,
      "prior_available": true
    },
    {
      "team": "UAB",
      "conference": "American Athletic",
      "rank": 118,
      "rating": -8.680377412571579,
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      "previous_rank": 125,
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    },
    {
      "team": "Arkansas",
      "conference": "SEC",
      "rank": 119,
      "rating": -8.890735512778878,
      "games": 3,
      "previous_rank": 114,
      "rank_change": -5,
      "prior_available": true
    },
    {
      "team": "Stanford",
      "conference": "ACC",
      "rank": 120,
      "rating": -9.067009284063019,
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      "previous_rank": 115,
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    },
    {
      "team": "San Jos\u00e9 State",
      "conference": "Mountain West",
      "rank": 121,
      "rating": -9.09046400799383,
      "games": 4,
      "previous_rank": 111,
      "rank_change": -10,
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    },
    {
      "team": "Nevada",
      "conference": "Mountain West",
      "rank": 122,
      "rating": -9.305384063407963,
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      "previous_rank": 128,
      "rank_change": 6,
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    },
    {
      "team": "Akron",
      "conference": "Mid-American",
      "rank": 123,
      "rating": -9.751386308298876,
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      "previous_rank": 99,
      "rank_change": -24,
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    },
    {
      "team": "Sacramento State",
      "conference": "Mid-American",
      "rank": 124,
      "rating": -9.944898031511277,
      "games": 4,
      "previous_rank": 123,
      "rank_change": -1,
      "prior_available": false
    },
    {
      "team": "UTEP",
      "conference": "Mountain West",
      "rank": 125,
      "rating": -10.576785184726727,
      "games": 3,
      "previous_rank": 119,
      "rank_change": -6,
      "prior_available": true
    },
    {
      "team": "Utah State",
      "conference": "Pac-12",
      "rank": 126,
      "rating": -10.802911507615876,
      "games": 3,
      "previous_rank": 129,
      "rank_change": 3,
      "prior_available": true
    },
    {
      "team": "Central Michigan",
      "conference": "Mid-American",
      "rank": 127,
      "rating": -11.143970800230687,
      "games": 3,
      "previous_rank": 134,
      "rank_change": 7,
      "prior_available": true
    },
    {
      "team": "Southern Miss",
      "conference": "Sun Belt",
      "rank": 128,
      "rating": -11.233005230820128,
      "games": 3,
      "previous_rank": 109,
      "rank_change": -19,
      "prior_available": true
    },
    {
      "team": "Buffalo",
      "conference": "Mid-American",
      "rank": 129,
      "rating": -12.538139439050225,
      "games": 3,
      "previous_rank": 130,
      "rank_change": 1,
      "prior_available": true
    },
    {
      "team": "Kent State",
      "conference": "Mid-American",
      "rank": 130,
      "rating": -12.570009678141322,
      "games": 3,
      "previous_rank": 131,
      "rank_change": 1,
      "prior_available": true
    },
    {
      "team": "Eastern Michigan",
      "conference": "Mid-American",
      "rank": 131,
      "rating": -13.476512847659366,
      "games": 4,
      "previous_rank": 126,
      "rank_change": -5,
      "prior_available": true
    },
    {
      "team": "Charlotte",
      "conference": "American Athletic",
      "rank": 132,
      "rating": -13.864087380467367,
      "games": 3,
      "previous_rank": 138,
      "rank_change": 6,
      "prior_available": true
    },
    {
      "team": "Ball State",
      "conference": "Mid-American",
      "rank": 133,
      "rating": -14.134738282238636,
      "games": 3,
      "previous_rank": 127,
      "rank_change": -6,
      "prior_available": true
    },
    {
      "team": "Wyoming",
      "conference": "Mountain West",
      "rank": 134,
      "rating": -14.56023126886112,
      "games": 3,
      "previous_rank": 133,
      "rank_change": -1,
      "prior_available": true
    },
    {
      "team": "UL Monroe",
      "conference": "Sun Belt",
      "rank": 135,
      "rating": -15.407355045761584,
      "games": 3,
      "previous_rank": 132,
      "rank_change": -3,
      "prior_available": true
    },
    {
      "team": "Western Kentucky",
      "conference": "Conference USA",
      "rank": 136,
      "rating": -15.641413865691362,
      "games": 3,
      "previous_rank": 135,
      "rank_change": -1,
      "prior_available": true
    },
    {
      "team": "Northern Illinois",
      "conference": "Mountain West",
      "rank": 137,
      "rating": -17.12137517470176,
      "games": 3,
      "previous_rank": 137,
      "rank_change": 0,
      "prior_available": true
    },
    {
      "team": "Bowling Green",
      "conference": "Mid-American",
      "rank": 138,
      "rating": -19.10159161867464,
      "games": 3,
      "previous_rank": 136,
      "rank_change": -2,
      "prior_available": true
    }
  ],
  "coverage": {
    "fbs_teams": 138,
    "rated_teams": 138,
    "completed_games": 260,
    "missing_prior_teams": [
      "North Dakota State",
      "Sacramento State"
    ]
  },
  "methodology": {
    "home_field": 2.5,
    "lower_rating": -25.0,
    "margin_cap": 35.0,
    "half_life_weeks": 18.0,
    "prior_carryover": 0.5,
    "prior_game_weight": 2.0,
    "overtime": "one-point result",
    "prior_inputs": "Previous season regular season and postseason",
    "probabilities": "No per-game probabilities exported by this board"
  },
  "sources": {
    "results_snapshot": "data/external/cfbd_results/2026/20260920T181516412113Z",
    "results_manifest_sha256": "aab035b869ff59043c28e0c8126b30cfb8fa63449fa8f51952a3180bca385026",
    "games_sha256": "c2c368b7bc2da0202accfedb4fdbb8d930589281ea3b801b31a449c973eae5b8",
    "teams_sha256": "15611e4d36965423f96b01f58fbe1ea9de04f88c2909a490ddbfcab4511ea2c2",
    "historical_games_sha256": "b3f08c7510f35acdd9e722e452c15d61bb9bd6e8bbe1634192943f041bc43b2f",
    "engine_sha256": "ad79d3a3f65c833896ff8c13e373dc2c9c07beb5a6dbd62247d0960f34384630"
  },
  "evidence": {
    "confirmation_years": "2024\u20132025 (previously inspected)",
    "early_games": 389,
    "early_mae": 14.778581865566403,
    "all_games": 1514,
    "all_mae": 12.927245323333526,
    "brier": 0.185175722875071,
    "brier_scope": "all confirmation games",
    "calibration_summary": "Frozen forecast mapping trained through 2023. Retrospective calibration intercept -0.002, slope 1.048 (ideal 0 and 1); not a guarantee for future games.",
    "interpretation": "Event-time historical replay; not a pristine holdout or betting-edge claim.",
    "source_sha256": {
      "summary.json": "e329ed96b22f1f2427923bf438a6428d30cde717b66560dad1862a7eb1a5a201",
      "metrics.csv": "7cbcc055561842630581f888444cd60c2dbb5a9767598f42a85e37f5f7caee86",
      "calibration.csv": "06b9818026d945005812da75f02d25ddb24c43ed048ffe1c22f8d8a8bf3df34d",
      "stability.csv": "81a1a81cfc7bad91657a205cc7035bd6d4350c959c5070baf905a874963ac81d"
    }
  }
}