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"spread_diff": 2.4, "total_pick": "Over", "total_diff": 0.5 }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "time_et": "7:00 PM", "raw_matchup": "Oklahoma State at Iowa State", "neutral_site": false, "away_team": "Oklahoma State", "home_team": "Iowa State", "projected_winner": "Oklahoma State", "projected_loser": "Iowa State", "winner_score": 33, "loser_score": 22, "winner_win_probability": 0.76, "projected_margin": 11.1, "projected_total": 54.5, "source_spread": "Oklahoma State -10", "source_total": 57.5, "ats_pick": "Oklahoma State", "spread_diff": 1.1, "total_pick": "Under", "total_diff": -3.0 }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "time_et": "7:00 PM", "raw_matchup": "Washington State at San Diego State", "neutral_site": false, "away_team": "Washington State", "home_team": "San Diego State", "projected_winner": "San Diego State", "projected_loser": "Washington State", "winner_score": 29, "loser_score": 21, "winner_win_probability": 0.69, "projected_margin": 8.0, "projected_total": 49.7, "source_spread": "San Diego State -3", "source_total": 49.5, "ats_pick": "San Diego State", "spread_diff": 5.0, "total_pick": "Over", "total_diff": 0.2 }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "time_et": "7:30 PM", "raw_matchup": "Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh", "neutral_site": false, "away_team": "Georgia Tech", "home_team": "Pittsburgh", "projected_winner": "Pittsburgh", "projected_loser": "Georgia Tech", "winner_score": 33, "loser_score": 22, "winner_win_probability": 0.77, "projected_margin": 11.6, "projected_total": 55.1, "source_spread": "Pittsburgh -7", "source_total": 52.5, "ats_pick": "Pittsburgh", "spread_diff": 4.6, "total_pick": "Over", "total_diff": 2.6 }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "time_et": "7:30 PM", "raw_matchup": "Miami-FL at North Carolina", "neutral_site": false, "away_team": "Miami-FL", "home_team": "North Carolina", "projected_winner": "Miami-FL", "projected_loser": "North Carolina", "winner_score": 36, "loser_score": 17, "winner_win_probability": 0.88, "projected_margin": 18.5, "projected_total": 53.2, "source_spread": "Miami-FL -15.5", "source_total": 51.5, "ats_pick": "Miami-FL", "spread_diff": 3.0, "total_pick": "Over", "total_diff": 1.7 }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "time_et": "7:30 PM", "raw_matchup": "Mississippi State at Texas", "neutral_site": false, "away_team": "Mississippi State", "home_team": "Texas", "projected_winner": "Texas", "projected_loser": "Mississippi State", "winner_score": 35, "loser_score": 18, "winner_win_probability": 0.86, "projected_margin": 16.9, "projected_total": 53.7, "source_spread": "Texas -21", "source_total": 50.5, "ats_pick": "Mississippi State", "spread_diff": 4.1, "total_pick": "Over", "total_diff": 3.2 }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "time_et": "7:30 PM", "raw_matchup": "Ohio State at USC", "neutral_site": false, "away_team": "Ohio State", "home_team": "USC", "projected_winner": "Ohio State", "projected_loser": "USC", "winner_score": 33, "loser_score": 21, "winner_win_probability": 0.77, "projected_margin": 11.9, "projected_total": 54.4, "source_spread": "Ohio State -7", "source_total": 50.5, "ats_pick": "Ohio State", "spread_diff": 4.9, "total_pick": "Over", "total_diff": 3.9 }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "time_et": "7:45 PM", "raw_matchup": "Missouri at Arkansas", "neutral_site": false, "away_team": "Missouri", "home_team": "Arkansas", "projected_winner": "Missouri", "projected_loser": "Arkansas", "winner_score": 32, "loser_score": 20, "winner_win_probability": 0.78, "projected_margin": 12.1, "projected_total": 51.7, "source_spread": "Missouri -10", "source_total": 47.5, "ats_pick": "Missouri", "spread_diff": 2.1, "total_pick": "Over", "total_diff": 4.2 }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "time_et": "8:00 PM", "raw_matchup": "Army at Memphis", "neutral_site": false, "away_team": "Army", "home_team": "Memphis", "projected_winner": "Memphis", "projected_loser": "Army", "winner_score": 34, "loser_score": 26, "winner_win_probability": 0.7, "projected_margin": 8.5, "projected_total": 60.1, "source_spread": "Memphis -6.5", "source_total": 57.5, "ats_pick": "Memphis", "spread_diff": 2.0, "total_pick": "Over", "total_diff": 2.6 }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "time_et": "8:00 PM", "raw_matchup": "Washington at Nebraska", "neutral_site": false, "away_team": "Washington", "home_team": "Nebraska", "projected_winner": "Nebraska", "projected_loser": "Washington", "winner_score": 29, "loser_score": 21, "winner_win_probability": 0.7, "projected_margin": 8.4, "projected_total": 49.5, "source_spread": "Nebraska -9.5", "source_total": 49.5, "ats_pick": "Washington", "spread_diff": 1.1, "total_pick": "Under", "total_diff": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "time_et": "10:00 PM", "raw_matchup": "Texas State at Boise State", "neutral_site": false, "away_team": "Texas State", "home_team": "Boise State", "projected_winner": "Boise State", "projected_loser": "Texas State", "winner_score": 37, "loser_score": 25, "winner_win_probability": 0.77, "projected_margin": 11.9, "projected_total": 61.4, "source_spread": "Boise State -12.5", "source_total": 65.5, "ats_pick": "Texas State", "spread_diff": 0.6, "total_pick": "Under", "total_diff": -4.1 }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "time_et": "10:30 PM", "raw_matchup": "Northern Illinois at UNLV", "neutral_site": false, "away_team": "Northern Illinois", "home_team": "UNLV", "projected_winner": "UNLV", "projected_loser": "Northern Illinois", "winner_score": 39, "loser_score": 13, "winner_win_probability": 0.95, "projected_margin": 25.7, "projected_total": 52.4, "source_spread": "UNLV -24.5", "source_total": 52.5, "ats_pick": "UNLV", "spread_diff": 1.2, "total_pick": "Under", "total_diff": -0.1 }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "time_et": "11:00 PM", "raw_matchup": "Oregon State at Fresno State", "neutral_site": false, "away_team": "Oregon State", "home_team": "Fresno State", "projected_winner": "Oregon State", "projected_loser": "Fresno State", "winner_score": 27, "loser_score": 26, "winner_win_probability": 0.54, "projected_margin": 1.5, "projected_total": 52.7, "source_spread": "Oregon State -7", "source_total": 57.5, "ats_pick": "Fresno State", "spread_diff": 5.5, "total_pick": "Under", "total_diff": -4.8 } ], "snapshot": "2026_week9_20261025T212839844929Z_auto", "manifest_sha256": "37bfa72921df3b8c9873c62f1cdcd03084b214dc5c41cc937ce1da2c69ef72fa", "publication_time": null, "effective_results_cutoff": null, "forecast_coverage": { "scope": "scheduled FBS-v-FBS games; FCS identities checked separately", "schedule_week": 9, "expected_games": 56, "observed_games": 56, "source_sha256": "0fc36fae1cd3b975b6f3aa025cb831c00532e047620e80441e85529258e23025" }, "prospective_eligible": false, "notes": [ "External SP+ reference; separate from CFB/LAB forecasts and historical benchmarks.", "FBS baseline. Defense is points allowed: lower is better.", "Movement uses the captured previous-week FBS table, not the source LW columns.", "Source spread and total are archived workbook quotes, not live odds.", "Projected score is rounded and winner-first. Times are source Eastern Time.", "Provider week labels are not asserted to be CFBD week identifiers.", "Capture time does not establish provider publication time or backtest eligibility." ], "performance": { "captured_at": "2026-10-04T19:28:29.455935+00:00", "source_url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/edit#gid=1862799891", "source_sha256": "cc2257be18eb88285332f4bad77f1fd13365eb5076a5ff5c0a39f4dbec6d376c", "rows": [ { "week": "0-1", "ats_record": "28-22-1", "ats_pct": "55.9%", "margin_mae": 13.7, "margin_median_error": 11.4, "total_record": "22-29", "total_pct": "43.1%", "total_mae": 12.0, "total_median_error": 9.5 }, { "week": "2", "ats_record": "25-24", "ats_pct": "51.0%", "margin_mae": 12.0, "margin_median_error": 10.3, "total_record": "24-25", "total_pct": "49.0%", "total_mae": 11.2, "total_median_error": 9.3 }, { "week": "3", "ats_record": "31-24-2", "ats_pct": "56.1%", "margin_mae": 8.9, "margin_median_error": 6.8, "total_record": "32-25", "total_pct": "56.1%", "total_mae": 14.3, "total_median_error": 12.1 }, { "week": "4", "ats_record": "29-29", "ats_pct": "50.0%", "margin_mae": 11.9, "margin_median_error": 11.4, "total_record": "28-30", "total_pct": "48.3%", "total_mae": 11.7, "total_median_error": 10.4 }, { "week": "5", "ats_record": "33-23", "ats_pct": "58.9%", "margin_mae": 13.1, "margin_median_error": 8.9, "total_record": "20-36", "total_pct": "35.7%", "total_mae": 13.4, "total_median_error": 11.7 }, { "week": "TOTAL", "ats_record": "146-122-3", "ats_pct": "54.4%", "margin_mae": 11.8, "margin_median_error": 9.6, "total_record": "126-145", "total_pct": "46.5%", "total_mae": 12.5, "total_median_error": 10.6 } ] } }