A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Air Force Falcons enters 2026 rated 4th in the Mountain West (#79 nationally). The profile is a below average defense (#83) paired with a middling offense (#70). Schedule math puts the season at 8.0 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 7.8. The season turns on 5 close games: North Dakota State, Navy, UNLV, Army, New Mexico.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 4-8 | 3-5 | #81 | #62 | #101 | #65 |
Troy Calhoun — year 20, 139-97 career.
OC: returning
DC: returning
Cycle of fall apart then come back stronger; 4 straight def SP+ top-30 then slipped to 76th then 101st; no transfers allowed
59% overall, ranked #37 nationally.
Offense 42% · Defense 75%
130 returning starts, 0 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs Duquesne | FCS | +25.1 | 96% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-13 | vs North Dakota State | #72 / -1.4 | +1.5 | 55% | Swing |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ Nevada | #112 / -12.2 | +7.3 | 71% | Lean win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs Navy | #63 / +1.1 | -1.0 | 47% | Swing |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ Northern Illinois | #125 / -18.2 | +13.3 | 84% | Should win |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs UNLV | #59 / +2.8 | -2.7 | 42% | Lean loss |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ Wyoming | #106 / -9.6 | +4.7 | 64% | Lean win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs UConn | #107 / -11.2 | +11.3 | 80% | Should win |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-08 | @ Army | #83 / -3.0 | -1.9 | 44% | Lean loss |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-15 | vs San José State | #122 / -15.5 | +15.6 | 88% | Should win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs UTEP | #129 / -20.5 | +20.6 | 93% | Should win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ New Mexico | #68 / -0.5 | -4.4 | 37% | Lean loss |
2.69
expected wins across 4 games
Duquesne, North Dakota State, Nevada, Navy
2.70
expected wins across 4 games
Northern Illinois, UNLV, Wyoming, UConn
2.61
expected wins across 4 games
Army, San José State, UTEP, New Mexico
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Liam Szarka
returning starter limited sample
Established himself mid-2025; 31.0 PPG in 8 games with 40+ snaps; 5.4 ypc 50.8% success rate; 21 of 75 completions went 20+ yds
Calhoun Cycle
Cycle of fall apart then come back stronger; 2-10 109th then 10-win seasons; 5-7 back-to-back then 11-2; always finds fixes
Szarka Impact · 31_vs_20
Air Force avg 31.0 PPG in 8 games Szarka had 40+ snaps vs 20.3 PPG in 3 other FBS games
Def Decline · top30_to_101
4 consecutive defensive SP+ top-30 finishes then slipped to 76th in 2024 and 101st in 2025
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 17 | UNLV at Air Force | Rematch of 51-48 delirious 2025 game; UNLV must play at all 3 other contenders on the road |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNLV | #59 | +2.8 | #33 | #89 | 40% | #116 |
| 2 | New Mexico | #68 | -0.5 | #68 | #73 | 63% | #21 |
| 3 | North Dakota State | #72 | -1.4 | #82 | #67 | 52% | #65 |
| 4 | Air Force | #79 | -2.4 | #70 | #83 | 59% | #37 |
| 5 | Hawai'i | #84 | -3.9 | #69 | #93 | 45% | #101 |
| 6 | Wyoming | #106 | -9.6 | #124 | #58 | 40% | #118 |
| 7 | Nevada | #112 | -12.2 | #117 | #96 | 48% | #91 |
| 8 | San José State | #122 | -15.5 | #114 | #114 | 24% | #137 |
| 9 | Northern Illinois | #125 | -18.2 | #132 | #105 | 48% | #85 |
| 10 | UTEP | #129 | -20.5 | #129 | #119 | 35% | #126 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.