A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Akron Zips enters 2026 rated 9th in the MAC (#127 nationally). The profile is a poor defense (#106) paired with a poor offense (#135). Schedule math puts the season at 3.8 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 4.2. 6 games project as clear underdog spots (Wake Forest, Minnesota, UNLV, Central Michigan, Miami (OH), Western Michigan). The season turns on 4 close games: Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Ohio, Buffalo.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 5-7 | 4-4 | #117 | #123 | #87 | #129 |
Joe Moorhead — year 5, 13-35 career.
OC: returning
DC: returning
Coached butt off in 2025; postseason ban; best SP+ in 7 years best wins in 8; curve-graded but genuine improvement
40% overall, ranked #115 nationally.
Offense 44% · Defense 37%
105 returning starts, 11 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-03 | @ Wake Forest | #58 / +3.6 | -25.6 | 4% | Upset needed |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Robert Morris | FCS | +8.0 | 73% | Lean win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | @ Minnesota | #45 / +5.2 | -27.2 | 3% | Upset needed |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs UNLV | #59 / +2.8 | -19.8 | 8% | Upset needed |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ Central Michigan | #113 / -12.4 | -9.6 | 23% | Upset needed |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs Eastern Michigan | #121 / -15.0 | -2.0 | 44% | Lean loss |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | @ Miami (OH) | #81 / -2.9 | -19.1 | 8% | Upset needed |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ Kent State | #128 / -20.1 | -1.9 | 44% | Lean loss |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-04 | vs Ohio | #117 / -13.6 | -3.4 | 40% | Lean loss |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-10 | vs Western Michigan | #95 / -7.2 | -9.8 | 23% | Upset needed |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-18 | @ Massachusetts | #137 / -30.9 | +8.9 | 75% | Lean win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-27 | vs Buffalo | #110 / -11.9 | -5.1 | 35% | Lean loss |
0.88
expected wins across 4 games
Wake Forest, Robert Morris, Minnesota, UNLV
1.19
expected wins across 4 games
Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Miami (OH), Kent State
1.72
expected wins across 4 games
Ohio, Western Michigan, Massachusetts, Buffalo
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Brayden Roggow vs Reese Poffenbarger
battle (sophomore vs well-traveled transfer) limited sample
Poffenbarger 5th school in 6 years; 6669 career yds mostly at Albany 2022-23; 1000-yd rusher Gant returns
Moorhead Curve
Coached butt off despite postseason ban and 8 wins in 3 years inherited; best SP+ in 7 years best wins in 8; curve-graded but genuine
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami (OH) | #81 | -2.9 | #111 | #48 | 49% | #84 |
| 2 | Western Michigan | #95 | -7.2 | #112 | #68 | 51% | #72 |
| 3 | Toledo | #108 | -11.5 | #121 | #84 | 33% | #130 |
| 4 | Buffalo | #110 | -11.9 | #126 | #85 | 30% | #135 |
| 5 | Central Michigan | #113 | -12.4 | #116 | #92 | 46% | #100 |
| 6 | Bowling Green | #115 | -13.3 | #128 | #88 | 35% | #124 |
| 7 | Ohio | #117 | -13.6 | #134 | #72 | 33% | #129 |
| 8 | Eastern Michigan | #121 | -15.0 | #115 | #112 | 62% | #24 |
| 9 | Akron | #127 | -19.5 | #135 | #106 | 40% | #115 |
| 10 | Kent State | #128 | -20.1 | #125 | #127 | 48% | #87 |
| 11 | Sacramento State | #130 | -22.7 | #127 | #131 | 32% | #131 |
| 12 | Ball State | #134 | -25.2 | #136 | #128 | 36% | #123 |
| 13 | Massachusetts | #137 | -30.9 | #138 | #136 | 46% | #96 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.