A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Alabama Crimson Tide enters 2026 rated 5th in the SEC (#11 nationally). The profile is an elite defense (#4) paired with a strong offense (#32). Schedule math puts the season at 8.3 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 8.0. The season turns on 4 close games: Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M, LSU.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 11-4 | 7-2 | #20 | #36 | #11 | #107 |
Kalen DeBoer — year 3, 20-8 career.
OC: returning
DC: Kane Wommack
8 losses in 2 years = Saban's last 5
48% overall, ranked #90 nationally.
Offense 35% · Defense 61%
119 returning starts, 8 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs East Carolina | #76 / -2.0 | +22.7 | 94% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | @ Kentucky | #53 / +3.8 | +11.9 | 82% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Florida State | #35 / +8.8 | +11.9 | 82% | Should win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs South Carolina | #24 / +12.1 | +8.6 | 75% | Lean win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ Mississippi State | #52 / +3.9 | +11.8 | 81% | Should win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs Georgia | #4 / +25.5 | -4.8 | 35% | Lean loss |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | @ Tennessee | #15 / +16.0 | -0.3 | 49% | Swing |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | vs Texas A&M | #9 / +20.3 | +0.4 | 51% | Swing |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | @ LSU | #10 / +20.2 | -4.5 | 36% | Lean loss |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ Vanderbilt | #31 / +10.0 | +5.7 | 67% | Lean win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs Chattanooga | FCS | +45.7 | 100% | Should win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs Auburn | #26 / +11.2 | +9.5 | 77% | Lean win |
3.32
expected wins across 4 games
East Carolina, Kentucky, Florida State, South Carolina
2.17
expected wins across 4 games
Mississippi State, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M
2.80
expected wins across 4 games
LSU, Vanderbilt, Chattanooga, Auburn
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Keelon Russell vs Austin Mack
battle (redshirt freshman vs junior) inexperienced
Russell was #2 prospect in 2025 class; nearly perfect in tiny sample; massive upside
Off Sp Plus 2025 · 36
Faded down stretch from DeBoer debut
Drop Rate Coleman Williams · 13.0
Worst in country for high-volume receiver
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Georgia at Alabama | Rematch of 2025 thriller in Tuscaloosa |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | #4 | +25.5 | #5 | #5 | 68% | #9 |
| 2 | Texas | #6 | +23.7 | #7 | #8 | 68% | #6 |
| 3 | Texas A&M | #9 | +20.3 | #10 | #14 | 65% | #15 |
| 4 | LSU | #10 | +20.2 | #21 | #2 | 61% | #30 |
| 5 | Alabama | #11 | +18.2 | #32 | #4 | 48% | #90 |
| 6 | Oklahoma | #12 | +17.2 | #27 | #10 | 68% | #7 |
| 7 | Tennessee | #15 | +16.0 | #4 | #50 | 62% | #26 |
| 8 | Ole Miss | #16 | +15.9 | #11 | #25 | 61% | #28 |
| 9 | Florida | #19 | +14.9 | #39 | #12 | 66% | #11 |
| 10 | Missouri | #20 | +14.8 | #24 | #15 | 51% | #70 |
| 11 | South Carolina | #24 | +12.1 | #44 | #21 | 68% | #5 |
| 12 | Auburn | #26 | +11.2 | #55 | #18 | 57% | #46 |
| 13 | Vanderbilt | #31 | +10.0 | #15 | #56 | 44% | #106 |
| 14 | Arkansas | #47 | +5.0 | #13 | #91 | 55% | #56 |
| 15 | Mississippi State | #52 | +3.9 | #41 | #76 | 48% | #86 |
| 16 | Kentucky | #53 | +3.8 | #75 | #36 | 46% | #98 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.