A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Arizona State Sun Devils enters 2026 rated 9th in the Big 12 (#42 nationally). The profile is a strong defense (#37) paired with an above average offense (#57). Schedule math puts the season at 6.0 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 6.0. 3 games project as clear underdog spots (Texas A&M, Texas Tech, BYU). The season turns on 5 close games: Kansas, Kansas State, UCF, Oklahoma State, Arizona.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 8-5 | 6-3 | #60 | #60 | #45 | #127 |
Kenny Dillingham — year 4, 22-16 career.
OC: Marcus Arroyo (NEW)
DC: Brian Ward
Arroyo replaces outgoing OC; tends to keep things simple
51% overall, ranked #71 nationally.
Offense 53% · Defense 49%
58 returning starts, 16 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-06 | vs Morgan State | FCS | +33.9 | 99% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | @ Texas A&M | #9 / +20.3 | -16.4 | 11% | Upset needed |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Kansas neutral | #57 / +3.7 | +2.7 | 58% | Swing |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs Baylor | #51 / +4.5 | +4.4 | 63% | Lean win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs Hawai'i | #84 / -3.9 | +12.8 | 83% | Should win |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | @ Texas Tech | #7 / +23.1 | -19.2 | 8% | Upset needed |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | vs Kansas State | #29 / +10.4 | -1.5 | 45% | Swing |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | @ BYU | #18 / +15.5 | -11.6 | 19% | Upset needed |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs Colorado | #65 / +0.9 | +8.0 | 73% | Lean win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ UCF | #60 / +2.3 | +1.6 | 55% | Swing |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs Oklahoma State | #38 / +7.1 | +1.8 | 56% | Swing |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ Arizona | #30 / +10.2 | -6.3 | 31% | Lean loss |
2.32
expected wins across 4 games
Morgan State, Texas A&M, Kansas, Baylor
1.56
expected wins across 4 games
Hawai'i, Texas Tech, Kansas State, BYU
2.15
expected wins across 4 games
Colorado, UCF, Oklahoma State, Arizona
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Cutter Boley vs Mikey Keene
battle (sophomore vs sixth-year veteran) limited sample vs experienced
Boley decent numbers at UK under difficulty; Keene 6th-year from Fresno/Michigan; 4 QBs fighting for job
Transfers Added · 25
25 transfers arrive; 16 from power conferences; only 11 of 34 regulars return
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Tech | #7 | +23.1 | #8 | #11 | 65% | #12 |
| 2 | BYU | #18 | +15.5 | #16 | #20 | 64% | #18 |
| 3 | Utah | #25 | +11.9 | #18 | #34 | 55% | #54 |
| 4 | Kansas State | #29 | +10.4 | #17 | #49 | 58% | #38 |
| 5 | Arizona | #30 | +10.2 | #29 | #33 | 60% | #32 |
| 6 | TCU | #34 | +9.1 | #31 | #40 | 51% | #69 |
| 7 | Houston | #36 | +8.2 | #30 | #45 | 65% | #17 |
| 8 | Oklahoma State | #38 | +7.1 | #42 | #52 | 58% | #42 |
| 9 | Arizona State | #42 | +6.4 | #57 | #37 | 51% | #71 |
| 10 | Cincinnati | #50 | +4.5 | #46 | #65 | 57% | #50 |
| 11 | Baylor | #51 | +4.5 | #23 | #87 | 53% | #61 |
| 12 | Kansas | #57 | +3.7 | #51 | #70 | 58% | #39 |
| 13 | UCF | #60 | +2.3 | #79 | #41 | 61% | #29 |
| 14 | Iowa State | #64 | +1.0 | #94 | #42 | 45% | #102 |
| 15 | Colorado | #65 | +0.9 | #64 | #57 | 55% | #55 |
| 16 | West Virginia | #66 | +0.8 | #62 | #66 | 52% | #66 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.