Arkansas Razorbacks Football · 2026 Season Preview

Arkansas Razorbacks

A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.

2026 SP+

#47

+5.0 overall · 14th of 16 in the SEC

Projection

4.0

Expected wins across 12 games

Most Likely

4-8

29.6% of outcomes

Off / Def

13/91

National ranks · Connelly model: 4.3 avg wins

Executive read

Arkansas Razorbacks enters 2026 rated 14th in the SEC (#47 nationally). The profile is a below average defense (#91) paired with an elite offense (#13). Schedule math puts the season at 4.0 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 4.3. 9 games project as clear underdog spots (Utah, Georgia, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Auburn, Texas, LSU). The season turns on 1 close game: South Carolina.

Page 2 · Team Quality

What the Ratings Say

Overall SP+

#47

+5.0 rating

Offense

#13

34.1 pts/gm · elite

Defense

#91

29.3 allowed · below average

Special teams

#44

+0.3 value

Unit ranks, 1–138 national

Offense#13

Defense#91

Special teams#44

Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.

2025 result	Record	Conf	SP+ rank	Off	Def	ST
Where they finished	2-10	0-8	#54	#16	#99	#44

Sideline

Ryan Silverfield — year 1, N/A (new hire) career.

OC: TBD
DC: Ron Roberts (NEW)

Silverfield from Memphis; inherited 2-10 roster

Returning production

55% overall, ranked #56 nationally.

Offense 55% · Defense 55%

77 returning starts, 12 redshirt freshmen.

Two models, one slate. This report's schedule math projects 3.95 wins; Connelly's published model projects 4.3 (2.2 in conference) with a strength-of-schedule rank of #2. His model gives 18.6% odds of six-plus wins and 0.0% of eleven-plus. Two independent methods landing close together is corroboration, not confirmation — they share SP+ as an input.

Page 3 · Schedule Math

Game-by-Game Projection

Week	Date	Opponent	Opp SP+	Proj margin	Win %	Tier
Wk 1	2026-09-05	vs North Alabama	FCS	+32.5	98%	Should win
Wk 2	2026-09-13	@ Utah	#25 / +11.9	-9.4	24%	Upset needed
Wk 3	2026-09-19	vs Georgia	#4 / +25.5	-18.0	10%	Upset needed
Wk 4	2026-09-27	vs Tulsa	#96 / -7.6	+15.1	87%	Should win
Wk 5	2026-10-03	@ Texas A&M	#9 / +20.3	-17.8	10%	Upset needed
Wk 6	2026-10-10	vs Tennessee	#15 / +16.0	-8.5	26%	Upset needed
Wk 7	2026-10-17	@ Vanderbilt	#31 / +10.0	-7.5	28%	Upset needed
Wk 9	2026-10-31	vs Missouri	#20 / +14.8	-7.3	29%	Upset needed
Wk 10	2026-11-07	@ Auburn	#26 / +11.2	-8.7	25%	Upset needed
Wk 11	2026-11-14	vs South Carolina	#24 / +12.1	-4.6	36%	Lean loss
Wk 12	2026-11-21	@ Texas	#6 / +23.7	-21.2	7%	Upset needed
Wk 13	2026-11-28	vs LSU	#10 / +20.2	-12.7	17%	Upset needed

Opening third

2.18

expected wins across 4 games
North Alabama, Utah, Georgia, Tulsa

Middle third

0.92

expected wins across 4 games
Texas A&M, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Missouri

Closing third

0.85

expected wins across 4 games
Auburn, South Carolina, Texas, LSU

How to read the margin column. It is the SP+ rating gap plus home field, in points — a positive number means the model favors Arkansas. Win percentage is that margin mapped through a logistic calibrated so a seven-point favorite wins about 70% of the time.

Page 4 · Outlook

Season Distribution

Expected wins

3.95

across 12 games

Bowl odds

12%

six or more wins

Total mass

100%

distribution sums to 100%

Conference

SEC

16 teams rated

Win-total probability

1 wins1.3%

2 wins11.2%

3 wins25.9%

4 wins29.6%

5 wins20.1%

6 wins8.8%

7 wins2.5%

8 wins0.5%

Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.

Quarterback

KJ Jackson vs AJ Hill

battle (sophomore vs redshirt freshman) inexperienced

Both athletic unproven; battle continues into fall

Program context

Off Sp Plus 2025 · 16
Top-20 offense despite 2-10 record

Def Sp Plus 2025 · 99
Defense was catastrophic

Page 5 · Conference & Method

Where They Sit in the SEC

#	Team	SP+ rank	Rating	Off	Def	Ret prod	Ret rank
1	Georgia	#4	+25.5	#5	#5	68%	#9
2	Texas	#6	+23.7	#7	#8	68%	#6
3	Texas A&M	#9	+20.3	#10	#14	65%	#15
4	LSU	#10	+20.2	#21	#2	61%	#30
5	Alabama	#11	+18.2	#32	#4	48%	#90
6	Oklahoma	#12	+17.2	#27	#10	68%	#7
7	Tennessee	#15	+16.0	#4	#50	62%	#26
8	Ole Miss	#16	+15.9	#11	#25	61%	#28
9	Florida	#19	+14.9	#39	#12	66%	#11
10	Missouri	#20	+14.8	#24	#15	51%	#70
11	South Carolina	#24	+12.1	#44	#21	68%	#5
12	Auburn	#26	+11.2	#55	#18	57%	#46
13	Vanderbilt	#31	+10.0	#15	#56	44%	#106
14	Arkansas	#47	+5.0	#13	#91	55%	#56
15	Mississippi State	#52	+3.9	#41	#76	48%	#86
16	Kentucky	#53	+3.8	#75	#36	46%	#98

Method & Provenance

Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.

Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).

Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.

Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.

Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.

Not betting advice. No market lines were pulled for this report and no edge is claimed. These are schedule-strength projections from public preseason ratings. If a real market exists, price it independently.