A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Arkansas State Red Wolves enters 2026 rated 6th in the Sun Belt (#101 nationally). The profile is a poor defense (#111) paired with a below average offense (#88). Schedule math puts the season at 7.1 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 6.9. 2 games project as clear underdog spots (Memphis, TCU). The season turns on 5 close games: Kennesaw State, Louisiana, Coastal Carolina, Louisiana Tech, Troy.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 7-6 | 5-3 | #100 | #93 | #111 | #62 |
Butch Jones — year 6, 26-37 career.
OC: Garrett Altman (NEW from Vandy)
DC: NEW
Altman was Vandy QBs coach; brought 2 Vandy transfers with him; Jones 21-18 since 2023 after rough start
49% overall, ranked #82 nationally.
Offense 52% · Defense 45%
124 returning starts, 13 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | @ Memphis | #70 / -1.1 | -9.9 | 22% | Upset needed |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs West Georgia | FCS | +19.0 | 91% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-20 | @ TCU | #34 / +9.1 | -20.1 | 8% | Upset needed |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs Kennesaw State | #105 / -9.3 | +3.3 | 60% | Swing |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ Louisiana | #104 / -9.1 | -1.9 | 44% | Lean loss |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-08 | vs South Alabama | #116 / -13.3 | +7.3 | 71% | Lean win |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | @ Southern Miss | #131 / -23.3 | +12.3 | 82% | Should win |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | vs Georgia State | #133 / -25.1 | +19.1 | 92% | Should win |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs UL Monroe | #132 / -24.3 | +18.3 | 91% | Should win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ Coastal Carolina | #119 / -13.8 | +2.8 | 59% | Swing |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-19 | @ Louisiana Tech | #100 / -8.3 | -2.7 | 42% | Lean loss |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs Troy | #90 / -6.0 | +0.0 | 50% | Swing |
1.82
expected wins across 4 games
Memphis, West Georgia, TCU, Kennesaw State
2.89
expected wins across 4 games
Louisiana, South Alabama, Southern Miss, Georgia State
2.41
expected wins across 4 games
UL Monroe, Coastal Carolina, Louisiana Tech, Troy
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Trey Owens vs Ethan Crawford
battle (Texas transfer vs returner) limited sample
Owens former blue-chipper from Texas; Crawford returning senior; 2 Vandy transfers also in mix; replacing Raynor (8694 yds 67 TDs)
Record 3Yr · 21-18
21-18 since 2023 with 96.0 avg SP+; from 2011-19 averaged 8.1 wins and 74.9 rank; Butch Jones stabilized
Def Rank Ceiling · 106
Haven't ranked higher than 106th in defensive SP+ since 2018; rushing passer well but not forcing behind schedule
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Madison | #77 | -2.1 | #76 | #75 | 30% | #136 |
| 2 | Old Dominion | #88 | -5.8 | #109 | #63 | 40% | #114 |
| 3 | Troy | #90 | -6.0 | #90 | #94 | 39% | #119 |
| 4 | Marshall | #92 | -6.4 | #54 | #124 | 48% | #88 |
| 5 | Louisiana Tech | #100 | -8.3 | #98 | #99 | 56% | #53 |
| 6 | Arkansas State | #101 | -8.5 | #88 | #111 | 49% | #82 |
| 7 | Georgia Southern | #103 | -8.9 | #92 | #109 | 43% | #108 |
| 8 | Louisiana | #104 | -9.1 | #72 | #116 | 49% | #81 |
| 9 | App State | #111 | -12.1 | #102 | #115 | 34% | #127 |
| 10 | South Alabama | #116 | -13.3 | #95 | #125 | 44% | #105 |
| 11 | Coastal Carolina | #119 | -13.8 | #103 | #118 | 42% | #112 |
| 12 | Southern Miss | #131 | -23.3 | #123 | #133 | 22% | #138 |
| 13 | UL Monroe | #132 | -24.3 | #130 | #130 | 51% | #68 |
| 14 | Georgia State | #133 | -25.1 | #120 | #137 | 38% | #121 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.