A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Army Black Knights enters 2026 rated 6th in the American (#83 nationally). The profile is a below average defense (#82) paired with a below average offense (#81). Schedule math puts the season at 7.2 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 7.1. The season turns on 8 close games: South Florida, Temple, Louisiana Tech, Tulsa, Memphis, Air Force, East Carolina, Navy.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 7-6 | 4-4 | #74 | #85 | #53 | #64 |
Jeff Monken — year 13, 89-63 career.
OC: returning
DC: returning
Bend-don't-break defense effective 3 years; option offense with Cronic modernization; 40-13 combined with Navy past 2 seasons
50% overall, ranked #75 nationally.
Offense 67% · Defense 33%
135 returning starts, 0 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs Bryant | FCS | +24.5 | 96% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs South Florida | #80 / -2.8 | +2.3 | 57% | Swing |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-25 | @ Temple | #102 / -8.7 | +3.2 | 60% | Swing |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ Louisiana Tech | #100 / -8.3 | +2.8 | 59% | Swing |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs Tulane | #87 / -5.5 | +5.0 | 65% | Lean win |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Florida Atlantic | #94 / -7.1 | +6.6 | 70% | Lean win |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ Tulsa | #96 / -7.6 | +2.1 | 57% | Swing |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | @ Memphis | #70 / -1.1 | -4.4 | 37% | Lean loss |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-08 | vs Air Force | #79 / -2.4 | +1.9 | 56% | Swing |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs East Carolina | #76 / -2.0 | +1.5 | 55% | Swing |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ Rice | #120 / -14.7 | +9.2 | 76% | Lean win |
| Wk 15 | 2026-12-12 | vs Navy neutral | #63 / +1.1 | -4.1 | 37% | Lean loss |
2.71
expected wins across 4 games
Bryant, South Florida, Temple, Louisiana Tech
2.28
expected wins across 4 games
Tulane, Florida Atlantic, Tulsa, Memphis
2.24
expected wins across 4 games
Air Force, East Carolina, Rice, Navy
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Cale Hellums
returning starter experienced
6-4 when started vs 1-2 without; 2.69 PPG per drive vs 1.73; 44.8% 3rd down vs 29.5%; major splits with and without him
Combined Navy Record · 40-13
Army+Navy combined 40-13 (.755) past 2 seasons; avg SP+ rank 53.8; rebound from 22-23 (.438 102.0 avg rank)
Hellums Splits · with_vs_without
6-4 with Hellums 1-2 without; 2.69 PPG/drive vs 1.73; 44.8% vs 29.5% 3rd down; 75.6% vs 53.3% 4th down
Close Games 2025 · 9
4-5 in one-score finishes after 23-16 from 2017-2024; 10 more projected for 2026
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 31 | Army at Memphis | Back half of Memphis home stand; Tigers could stake out top of standings by holding serve |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navy | #63 | +1.1 | #58 | #77 | 47% | #93 |
| 2 | Memphis | #70 | -1.1 | #56 | #95 | 42% | #111 |
| 3 | UTSA | #73 | -1.5 | #47 | #102 | 54% | #57 |
| 4 | East Carolina | #76 | -2.0 | #84 | #71 | 42% | #110 |
| 5 | South Florida | #80 | -2.8 | #59 | #98 | 41% | #113 |
| 6 | Army | #83 | -3.0 | #81 | #82 | 50% | #75 |
| 7 | Tulane | #87 | -5.5 | #99 | #86 | 40% | #117 |
| 8 | Florida Atlantic | #94 | -7.1 | #60 | #120 | 64% | #19 |
| 9 | Tulsa | #96 | -7.6 | #91 | #103 | 62% | #23 |
| 10 | Temple | #102 | -8.7 | #74 | #117 | 53% | #64 |
| 11 | UConn | #107 | -11.2 | #107 | #108 | 31% | #134 |
| 12 | North Texas | #109 | -11.8 | #89 | #123 | 32% | #132 |
| 13 | Rice | #120 | -14.7 | #119 | #110 | 39% | #120 |
| 14 | UAB | #124 | -18.1 | #108 | #132 | 35% | #125 |
| 15 | Charlotte | #138 | -32.4 | #137 | #138 | 43% | #107 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.