A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Auburn Tigers enters 2026 rated 12th in the SEC (#26 nationally). The profile is a strong defense (#18) paired with an above average offense (#55). Schedule math puts the season at 6.4 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 6.5. 4 games project as clear underdog spots (Tennessee, Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama). The season turns on 3 close games: Florida, Vanderbilt, LSU.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 5-7 | 1-7 | #29 | #59 | #16 | #51 |
Alex Golesh — year 1, N/A (new hire) career.
OC: Golesh (playcaller)
DC: D.J. Durkin (retained)
Golesh from USF; kept Durkin's top-20 defense
57% overall, ranked #46 nationally.
Offense 56% · Defense 58%
53 returning starts, 12 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs Baylor neutral | #51 / +4.5 | +6.7 | 70% | Lean win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Southern Miss | #131 / -23.3 | +37.0 | 99% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Florida | #19 / +14.9 | -1.2 | 46% | Swing |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs Vanderbilt | #31 / +10.0 | +3.7 | 61% | Swing |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ Tennessee | #15 / +16.0 | -7.3 | 29% | Upset needed |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | @ Georgia | #4 / +25.5 | -16.8 | 11% | Upset needed |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | vs LSU | #10 / +20.2 | -6.5 | 31% | Lean loss |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | @ Ole Miss | #16 / +15.9 | -7.2 | 29% | Upset needed |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs Arkansas | #47 / +5.0 | +8.7 | 75% | Lean win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ Mississippi State | #52 / +3.9 | +4.8 | 65% | Lean win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs Samford | FCS | +38.7 | 99% | Should win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ Alabama | #11 / +18.2 | -9.5 | 23% | Upset needed |
2.76
expected wins across 4 games
Baylor, Southern Miss, Florida, Vanderbilt
0.99
expected wins across 4 games
Tennessee, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss
2.62
expected wins across 4 games
Arkansas, Mississippi State, Samford, Alabama
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Byrum Brown
transfer (USF) experienced
3158 pass yds / 1121 rush yds / 42 TDs; followed coach Golesh; dynamite dual threat
Byrum Brown (QB, from USF)
3158 pass yds / 1121 non-sack rush yds / 42 total TDs; followed coach Golesh to the Plains
Cam Coleman (WR, from Auburn)
6-3 200lb former blue-chipper; highlight reel plays; 7.9% drop rate; high-upside Manning target
Cody Sigler (DT, from Arkansas State)
8 TFL / 5 sacks / 5 breakups at 302 lbs; big playmaker translating to SEC
Robert Woodyard Jr. (LB, from Auburn)
Tackles on 14.7% of snaps / 8 run stops; 245 lbs; replaces Josiah Trotter
One Score Record · 1-12
1 win 12 losses in last 13 one-score games
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | #4 | +25.5 | #5 | #5 | 68% | #9 |
| 2 | Texas | #6 | +23.7 | #7 | #8 | 68% | #6 |
| 3 | Texas A&M | #9 | +20.3 | #10 | #14 | 65% | #15 |
| 4 | LSU | #10 | +20.2 | #21 | #2 | 61% | #30 |
| 5 | Alabama | #11 | +18.2 | #32 | #4 | 48% | #90 |
| 6 | Oklahoma | #12 | +17.2 | #27 | #10 | 68% | #7 |
| 7 | Tennessee | #15 | +16.0 | #4 | #50 | 62% | #26 |
| 8 | Ole Miss | #16 | +15.9 | #11 | #25 | 61% | #28 |
| 9 | Florida | #19 | +14.9 | #39 | #12 | 66% | #11 |
| 10 | Missouri | #20 | +14.8 | #24 | #15 | 51% | #70 |
| 11 | South Carolina | #24 | +12.1 | #44 | #21 | 68% | #5 |
| 12 | Auburn | #26 | +11.2 | #55 | #18 | 57% | #46 |
| 13 | Vanderbilt | #31 | +10.0 | #15 | #56 | 44% | #106 |
| 14 | Arkansas | #47 | +5.0 | #13 | #91 | 55% | #56 |
| 15 | Mississippi State | #52 | +3.9 | #41 | #76 | 48% | #86 |
| 16 | Kentucky | #53 | +3.8 | #75 | #36 | 46% | #98 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.