A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Ball State Cardinals enters 2026 rated 12th in the MAC (#134 nationally). The profile is a poor defense (#128) paired with a poor offense (#136). Schedule math puts the season at 2.9 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 3.0. 9 games project as clear underdog spots (Ohio State, Liberty, Kent State, Toledo, Northwestern, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Ohio, Central Michigan). The season turns on 3 close games: Stony Brook, Sacramento State, Massachusetts.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 4-8 | 3-5 | #132 | #134 | #115 | #133 |
Mike Uremovich — year 2, 4-8 career.
OC: returning
DC: returning
Uremovich adaptable; NAIA St. Francis to Butler to Ball State; upset Ohio in Year 1; 1 double-digit SP+ ranking since 2014
36% overall, ranked #123 nationally.
Offense 47% · Defense 24%
74 returning starts, 19 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | @ Ohio State | #1 / +31.8 | -59.5 | 0% | Upset needed |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Stony Brook | FCS | +2.3 | 57% | Swing |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | @ Liberty | #93 / -6.4 | -21.3 | 7% | Upset needed |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ Kent State | #128 / -20.1 | -7.6 | 28% | Upset needed |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs Toledo | #108 / -11.5 | -11.2 | 20% | Upset needed |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ Northwestern | #49 / +4.6 | -32.3 | 2% | Upset needed |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | @ Bowling Green | #115 / -13.3 | -14.4 | 14% | Upset needed |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | vs Sacramento State | #130 / -22.7 | +0.0 | 50% | Swing |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-04 | @ Massachusetts | #137 / -30.9 | +3.2 | 60% | Swing |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-11 | vs Buffalo | #110 / -11.9 | -10.8 | 21% | Upset needed |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-17 | @ Ohio | #117 / -13.6 | -14.1 | 15% | Upset needed |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs Central Michigan | #113 / -12.4 | -10.3 | 22% | Upset needed |
0.92
expected wins across 4 games
Ohio State, Stony Brook, Liberty, Kent State
0.86
expected wins across 4 games
Toledo, Northwestern, Bowling Green, Sacramento State
1.17
expected wins across 4 games
Massachusetts, Buffalo, Ohio, Central Michigan
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Keldric Luster vs Tyler Mizzell
battle (Texas State transfer vs Concord D2 transfer) limited sample
Luster backup from QB-friendly Texas State; Mizzell 300+ yd games at D2; Uremovich adaptable; 8 OL transfers
Tyler Mizzell (QB, from Concord (D2))
300+ yd passing 5 times despite 4-7 team; 277 rush yds in 3-game span; big-play hunter; battling Luster for job
Decline · 2020
No winning record since 2020; 1 double-digit SP+ ranking since 2014; Uremovich Year 2 after upset of Ohio in Year 1
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami (OH) | #81 | -2.9 | #111 | #48 | 49% | #84 |
| 2 | Western Michigan | #95 | -7.2 | #112 | #68 | 51% | #72 |
| 3 | Toledo | #108 | -11.5 | #121 | #84 | 33% | #130 |
| 4 | Buffalo | #110 | -11.9 | #126 | #85 | 30% | #135 |
| 5 | Central Michigan | #113 | -12.4 | #116 | #92 | 46% | #100 |
| 6 | Bowling Green | #115 | -13.3 | #128 | #88 | 35% | #124 |
| 7 | Ohio | #117 | -13.6 | #134 | #72 | 33% | #129 |
| 8 | Eastern Michigan | #121 | -15.0 | #115 | #112 | 62% | #24 |
| 9 | Akron | #127 | -19.5 | #135 | #106 | 40% | #115 |
| 10 | Kent State | #128 | -20.1 | #125 | #127 | 48% | #87 |
| 11 | Sacramento State | #130 | -22.7 | #127 | #131 | 32% | #131 |
| 12 | Ball State | #134 | -25.2 | #136 | #128 | 36% | #123 |
| 13 | Massachusetts | #137 | -30.9 | #138 | #136 | 46% | #96 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.