A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Baylor Bears enters 2026 rated 11th in the Big 12 (#51 nationally). The profile is a below average defense (#87) paired with a strong offense (#23). Schedule math puts the season at 5.8 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 5.9. 2 games project as clear underdog spots (BYU, Texas Tech). The season turns on 6 close games: Auburn, Arizona State, TCU, Kansas, UCF, Houston.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 5-7 | 3-6 | #71 | #32 | #110 | #2 |
Dave Aranda — year 7, 36-37 career.
OC: Jake Spavital
DC: Joe Klanderman (NEW)
Aranda on hot seat; 3rd DC hire in 3 years; Klanderman avg 37.7 def SP+ at K-State; 6 defenses 2 top-25
53% overall, ranked #61 nationally.
Offense 44% · Defense 62%
68 returning starts, 14 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs Auburn neutral | #26 / +11.2 | -6.7 | 30% | Lean loss |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-13 | vs Prairie View A&M | FCS | +32.0 | 98% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Louisiana Tech | #100 / -8.3 | +15.3 | 87% | Should win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs Colorado | #65 / +0.9 | +6.1 | 68% | Lean win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ Arizona State | #42 / +6.4 | -4.4 | 37% | Lean loss |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs TCU | #34 / +9.1 | -2.1 | 43% | Lean loss |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ Kansas | #57 / +3.7 | -1.7 | 45% | Lean loss |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-30 | @ UCF | #60 / +2.3 | -0.3 | 49% | Swing |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs Iowa State | #64 / +1.0 | +6.0 | 68% | Lean win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ BYU | #18 / +15.5 | -13.5 | 16% | Upset needed |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs Texas Tech | #7 / +23.1 | -16.1 | 12% | Upset needed |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ Houston | #36 / +8.2 | -6.2 | 32% | Lean loss |
2.84
expected wins across 4 games
Auburn, Prairie View A&M, Louisiana Tech, Colorado
1.74
expected wins across 4 games
Arizona State, TCU, Kansas, UCF
1.27
expected wins across 4 games
Iowa State, BYU, Texas Tech, Houston
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
DJ Lagway
transfer (Florida) limited sample
Former blue-chipper and Florida starter; looks the part can throw a ton; 2 inconsistent seasons; Spavital must make him a QB
Hosea Wheeler (DT, from Indiana)
Started 5 games for national champ Indiana; 13 run stops among 30 total tackles; Cignetti aura
Def Sp Plus Avg · 92.0
Average 92.0 defensive SP+ rank over past 3 seasons; 16-21 combined record
One Score Games · 8
Eight of 12 games projected within one score; favorites in only 2
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Tech | #7 | +23.1 | #8 | #11 | 65% | #12 |
| 2 | BYU | #18 | +15.5 | #16 | #20 | 64% | #18 |
| 3 | Utah | #25 | +11.9 | #18 | #34 | 55% | #54 |
| 4 | Kansas State | #29 | +10.4 | #17 | #49 | 58% | #38 |
| 5 | Arizona | #30 | +10.2 | #29 | #33 | 60% | #32 |
| 6 | TCU | #34 | +9.1 | #31 | #40 | 51% | #69 |
| 7 | Houston | #36 | +8.2 | #30 | #45 | 65% | #17 |
| 8 | Oklahoma State | #38 | +7.1 | #42 | #52 | 58% | #42 |
| 9 | Arizona State | #42 | +6.4 | #57 | #37 | 51% | #71 |
| 10 | Cincinnati | #50 | +4.5 | #46 | #65 | 57% | #50 |
| 11 | Baylor | #51 | +4.5 | #23 | #87 | 53% | #61 |
| 12 | Kansas | #57 | +3.7 | #51 | #70 | 58% | #39 |
| 13 | UCF | #60 | +2.3 | #79 | #41 | 61% | #29 |
| 14 | Iowa State | #64 | +1.0 | #94 | #42 | 45% | #102 |
| 15 | Colorado | #65 | +0.9 | #64 | #57 | 55% | #55 |
| 16 | West Virginia | #66 | +0.8 | #62 | #66 | 52% | #66 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.