A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Boise State Broncos is the highest-rated team in the Pac-12 at #39 nationally. The profile is an above average defense (#46) paired with an above average offense (#43). Schedule math puts the season at 8.3 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 8.7. 1 game project as clear underdog spots (Oregon).
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 9-5 | 7-2 | #64 | #55 | #60 | #91 |
Spencer Danielson — year 4, 24-8 career.
OC: returning
DC: returning
Two versions of BSU: +21.1 in wins -21.8 in losses; 1 single-digit game all season; continuity as good as anyone's
57% overall, ranked #45 nationally.
Offense 60% · Defense 55%
149 returning starts, 15 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | @ Oregon | #2 / +28.3 | -24.0 | 5% | Upset needed |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Memphis | #70 / -1.1 | +10.4 | 79% | Lean win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-20 | vs South Dakota | FCS | +34.3 | 99% | Should win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ Western Michigan | #95 / -7.2 | +11.5 | 81% | Should win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs Utah State | #97 / -7.7 | +17.0 | 89% | Should win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-11 | @ Fresno State | #78 / -2.3 | +6.6 | 70% | Lean win |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ Washington State | #85 / -5.3 | +9.6 | 77% | Lean win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-11-01 | vs Texas State | #89 / -5.9 | +15.2 | 87% | Should win |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | @ Colorado State | #99 / -8.3 | +12.6 | 83% | Should win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs Oregon State | #91 / -6.3 | +15.6 | 88% | Should win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-22 | vs San Diego State | #71 / -1.3 | +10.6 | 79% | Lean win |
2.63
expected wins across 4 games
Oregon, Memphis, South Dakota, Western Michigan
3.23
expected wins across 4 games
Utah State, Fresno State, Washington State, Texas State
2.49
expected wins across 3 games
Colorado State, Oregon State, San Diego State
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Maddux Madsen
returning starter experienced
Struggled with mistakes and inefficiency in 2025; young receiving corps with only 1 transfer addition; must rebound
JeRico Washington Jr. (CB, from Kennesaw State)
13 PBUs 3.5 TFLs; allowed 39.0 QBR; Conference USA title team; only sophomore; fills BSU's only hole
Win Margin · 42.2-21.1
Avg score in 9 wins: BSU 42.2 opp 21.1 (+21.1)
Loss Margin · 7.6-29.4
Avg score in 5 losses: opp 29.4 BSU 7.6 (-21.8)
Single Digit Games · 1
Only 1 single-digit game all season; 25-24 comeback over Utah State led by backup Cutforth
Third Down Def · 33.7
33.7% third-down conversion rate allowed (23rd); forced 2nd-longest avg 3rd downs in nation
Riley Gaines Yds · 2157
RBs Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines combined for 2157 yds from scrimmage
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 10 | Boise St. at Fresno State | BSU single-digit favorite in only 2 conf games; this is closest; BSU lost 3 straight to Fresno; 1 win in Fresno in 11 years |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boise State | #39 | +6.8 | #43 | #46 | 57% | #45 |
| 2 | San Diego State | #71 | -1.3 | #93 | #60 | 59% | #34 |
| 3 | Fresno State | #78 | -2.3 | #105 | #47 | 53% | #63 |
| 4 | Washington State | #85 | -5.3 | #110 | #61 | 42% | #109 |
| 5 | Texas State | #89 | -5.9 | #26 | #129 | 56% | #51 |
| 6 | Oregon State | #91 | -6.3 | #104 | #74 | 47% | #94 |
| 7 | Utah State | #97 | -7.7 | #87 | #100 | 48% | #89 |
| 8 | Colorado State | #99 | -8.3 | #113 | #78 | 46% | #99 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.