A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Buffalo Bulls enters 2026 rated 4th in the MAC (#110 nationally). The profile is a below average defense (#85) paired with a poor offense (#126). Schedule math puts the season at 6.9 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 7.0. 2 games project as clear underdog spots (Penn State, Miami (OH)). The season turns on 5 close games: Florida International, Western Michigan, Toledo, Bowling Green, Central Michigan.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 5-7 | 4-4 | #95 | #118 | #70 | #12 |
Pete Lemlo — year 3, 14-11 career.
OC: Tony Tokarz (NEW)
DC: NEW
Only MAC coach with winning record (47-40) among 40+ game coaches; offense collapsed to 118th; 2 new coordinators; massive turnover
30% overall, ranked #135 nationally.
Offense 26% · Defense 33%
45 returning starts, 18 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-03 | vs UAlbany | FCS | +15.6 | 88% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | @ Florida International | #118 / -13.7 | -0.7 | 48% | Swing |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | @ Penn State | #17 / +15.7 | -30.1 | 2% | Upset needed |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs Robert Morris | FCS | +15.6 | 88% | Should win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs Western Michigan | #95 / -7.2 | -2.2 | 43% | Lean loss |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ Toledo | #108 / -11.5 | -2.9 | 41% | Lean loss |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Massachusetts | #137 / -30.9 | +21.5 | 94% | Should win |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | vs Bowling Green | #115 / -13.3 | +3.9 | 62% | Swing |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-04 | @ Miami (OH) | #81 / -2.9 | -11.5 | 19% | Upset needed |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-11 | @ Ball State | #134 / -25.2 | +10.8 | 79% | Lean win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-18 | vs Central Michigan | #113 / -12.4 | +3.0 | 59% | Swing |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-27 | @ Akron | #127 / -19.5 | +5.1 | 65% | Lean win |
2.25
expected wins across 4 games
UAlbany, Florida International, Penn State, Robert Morris
2.40
expected wins across 4 games
Western Michigan, Toledo, Massachusetts, Bowling Green
2.23
expected wins across 4 games
Miami (OH), Ball State, Central Michigan, Akron
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Elijah Holmes vs Jason Wright
battle (Wingate D2 transfer vs redshirt freshman) limited sample
Holmes: 3040 pass yds 24 TDs at D2 Wingate; Wright redshirt freshman; Mason Cumbie also holdover; new OC Tokarz from FSU
Lemlo Record · 47-40
Only MAC coach with winning record (47-40) among 40+ game coaches; 14-11 at Buffalo; 33 wins at Ball State including 19-7 in 2012-13
Scoring Threshold · 28
Undefaten when scoring 28+ but only did so 5 times; offense collapsed to 118th in SP+
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 3 | WMU at Buffalo | Buffalo's Lemlo dipped heavily into smaller-school ranks; early test if gambit successful; both projected in MAC top 5 |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami (OH) | #81 | -2.9 | #111 | #48 | 49% | #84 |
| 2 | Western Michigan | #95 | -7.2 | #112 | #68 | 51% | #72 |
| 3 | Toledo | #108 | -11.5 | #121 | #84 | 33% | #130 |
| 4 | Buffalo | #110 | -11.9 | #126 | #85 | 30% | #135 |
| 5 | Central Michigan | #113 | -12.4 | #116 | #92 | 46% | #100 |
| 6 | Bowling Green | #115 | -13.3 | #128 | #88 | 35% | #124 |
| 7 | Ohio | #117 | -13.6 | #134 | #72 | 33% | #129 |
| 8 | Eastern Michigan | #121 | -15.0 | #115 | #112 | 62% | #24 |
| 9 | Akron | #127 | -19.5 | #135 | #106 | 40% | #115 |
| 10 | Kent State | #128 | -20.1 | #125 | #127 | 48% | #87 |
| 11 | Sacramento State | #130 | -22.7 | #127 | #131 | 32% | #131 |
| 12 | Ball State | #134 | -25.2 | #136 | #128 | 36% | #123 |
| 13 | Massachusetts | #137 | -30.9 | #138 | #136 | 46% | #96 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.