A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
BYU Cougars enters 2026 rated 2nd in the Big 12 (#18 nationally). The profile is a strong defense (#20) paired with a strong offense (#16). Schedule math puts the season at 9.0 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 8.7. 1 game project as clear underdog spots (Notre Dame). The season turns on 2 close games: TCU, Utah.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 12-2 | 8-2 | #18 | #24 | #22 | #45 |
Kalani Sitake — year 10, 84-45 career.
OC: returning
DC: Kelly Poppinga (NEW)
Hill left for Michigan; Poppinga former BYU LB and longtime assistant takes over DC
64% overall, ranked #18 nationally.
Offense 59% · Defense 69%
177 returning starts, 10 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-06 | vs Utah Tech | FCS | +43.0 | 100% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Arizona | #30 / +10.2 | +7.8 | 73% | Lean win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | @ Colorado State | #99 / -8.3 | +21.3 | 93% | Should win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ TCU | #34 / +9.1 | +3.9 | 62% | Swing |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs Iowa State | #64 / +1.0 | +17.0 | 89% | Should win |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Notre Dame | #3 / +25.8 | -7.8 | 27% | Upset needed |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ UCF | #60 / +2.3 | +10.7 | 79% | Lean win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs Arizona State | #42 / +6.4 | +11.6 | 81% | Should win |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | @ Utah | #25 / +11.9 | +1.1 | 53% | Swing |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs Baylor | #51 / +4.5 | +13.5 | 84% | Should win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ Kansas | #57 / +3.7 | +9.3 | 76% | Lean win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs Cincinnati | #50 / +4.5 | +13.5 | 84% | Should win |
3.28
expected wins across 4 games
Utah Tech, Arizona, Colorado State, TCU
2.77
expected wins across 4 games
Iowa State, Notre Dame, UCF, Arizona State
2.98
expected wins across 4 games
Utah, Baylor, Kansas, Cincinnati
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Bear Bachmeier
returning starter experienced
Deliciously high level as true freshman; one of conference's safest bets
Record 2Yr · 23-4
23-4 over 2024-25 with 17.5 avg SP+ rank (30.0 off 21.5 def)
Record Collapsed · 13-12
13-12 in 2022-23 with 71.0 avg SP+ rank after joining Big 12
Bachmeier Freshman · true_freshman
Played at deliciously high level for a true freshman in 2025
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Sept. 12 | Arizona at BYU | BYU stole OT win over Arizona last year; tone-setter for conference; Houston-Tech same week |
| Oct. 3 | BYU at TCU | TCU has won 9 games 2 straight years; new OC-QB combo could make Frogs wild cards in title hunt |
| Nov. 7 | BYU at Utah | Holy War rivalry; both projected top-25; could decide title game participant |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Tech | #7 | +23.1 | #8 | #11 | 65% | #12 |
| 2 | BYU | #18 | +15.5 | #16 | #20 | 64% | #18 |
| 3 | Utah | #25 | +11.9 | #18 | #34 | 55% | #54 |
| 4 | Kansas State | #29 | +10.4 | #17 | #49 | 58% | #38 |
| 5 | Arizona | #30 | +10.2 | #29 | #33 | 60% | #32 |
| 6 | TCU | #34 | +9.1 | #31 | #40 | 51% | #69 |
| 7 | Houston | #36 | +8.2 | #30 | #45 | 65% | #17 |
| 8 | Oklahoma State | #38 | +7.1 | #42 | #52 | 58% | #42 |
| 9 | Arizona State | #42 | +6.4 | #57 | #37 | 51% | #71 |
| 10 | Cincinnati | #50 | +4.5 | #46 | #65 | 57% | #50 |
| 11 | Baylor | #51 | +4.5 | #23 | #87 | 53% | #61 |
| 12 | Kansas | #57 | +3.7 | #51 | #70 | 58% | #39 |
| 13 | UCF | #60 | +2.3 | #79 | #41 | 61% | #29 |
| 14 | Iowa State | #64 | +1.0 | #94 | #42 | 45% | #102 |
| 15 | Colorado | #65 | +0.9 | #64 | #57 | 55% | #55 |
| 16 | West Virginia | #66 | +0.8 | #62 | #66 | 52% | #66 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.