A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Central Michigan Chippewas enters 2026 rated 5th in the MAC (#113 nationally). The profile is a below average defense (#92) paired with a poor offense (#116). Schedule math puts the season at 6.1 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 6.1. 3 games project as clear underdog spots (New Mexico, Miami, Miami (OH)). The season turns on 5 close games: Wyoming, Ohio, Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Buffalo.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 7-6 | 5-3 | #101 | #120 | #65 | #84 |
Matt Drinkall — year 2, 7-6 career.
OC: Jim Chapin
DC: Sean Cronin
Drinkall controls the controllables; Labas quick-pass system; extreme split: walloped vs top-60 walloped everyone else
46% overall, ranked #100 nationally.
Offense 62% · Defense 29%
118 returning starts, 9 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-06 | @ New Mexico | #68 / -0.5 | -14.4 | 14% | Upset needed |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Colgate | FCS | +15.1 | 87% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Wyoming | #106 / -9.6 | -0.3 | 49% | Swing |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ Miami | #8 / +21.0 | -35.9 | 1% | Upset needed |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs Akron | #127 / -19.5 | +9.6 | 77% | Lean win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ Ohio | #117 / -13.6 | -1.3 | 46% | Swing |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Western Michigan | #95 / -7.2 | -2.7 | 42% | Lean loss |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | vs Miami (OH) | #81 / -2.9 | -7.0 | 29% | Upset needed |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-04 | vs Eastern Michigan neutral | #121 / -15.0 | +2.6 | 58% | Swing |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-11 | vs Sacramento State | #130 / -22.7 | +12.8 | 83% | Should win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-18 | @ Buffalo | #110 / -11.9 | -3.0 | 41% | Lean loss |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ Ball State | #134 / -25.2 | +10.3 | 78% | Lean win |
1.51
expected wins across 4 games
New Mexico, Colgate, Wyoming, Miami
1.94
expected wins across 4 games
Akron, Ohio, Western Michigan, Miami (OH)
2.60
expected wins across 4 games
Eastern Michigan, Sacramento State, Buffalo, Ball State
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Angel Flores
returning (was mobile backup) limited sample
Frequently used as mobile alternative to Labas last season; Labas gone; Flores gets reins; quick-pass system
Top60 Split · 41-8_vs_29-16
Vs SP+ top-60: walloped by avg 41-8 Labas 9.9 yds/completion 6.9 ypp; vs everyone else 7-2 avg 29-16 Labas 14.2 yds/completion 4.7 ypp
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 17 | WMU at CMU | CMU gets huge October opportunity; most proven OL in conference; offense crumbled late 2025 but experienced now |
| Oct. 24 | Miami at CMU | Back-to-back CMU opportunities; title race insertion; Chippewas play only 1 team above 68th all year |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami (OH) | #81 | -2.9 | #111 | #48 | 49% | #84 |
| 2 | Western Michigan | #95 | -7.2 | #112 | #68 | 51% | #72 |
| 3 | Toledo | #108 | -11.5 | #121 | #84 | 33% | #130 |
| 4 | Buffalo | #110 | -11.9 | #126 | #85 | 30% | #135 |
| 5 | Central Michigan | #113 | -12.4 | #116 | #92 | 46% | #100 |
| 6 | Bowling Green | #115 | -13.3 | #128 | #88 | 35% | #124 |
| 7 | Ohio | #117 | -13.6 | #134 | #72 | 33% | #129 |
| 8 | Eastern Michigan | #121 | -15.0 | #115 | #112 | 62% | #24 |
| 9 | Akron | #127 | -19.5 | #135 | #106 | 40% | #115 |
| 10 | Kent State | #128 | -20.1 | #125 | #127 | 48% | #87 |
| 11 | Sacramento State | #130 | -22.7 | #127 | #131 | 32% | #131 |
| 12 | Ball State | #134 | -25.2 | #136 | #128 | 36% | #123 |
| 13 | Massachusetts | #137 | -30.9 | #138 | #136 | 46% | #96 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.