A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Charlotte 49ers enters 2026 rated 15th in the American (#138 nationally). The profile is a poor defense (#138) paired with a poor offense (#137). Schedule math puts the season at 0.8 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 1.3. 11 games project as clear underdog spots (Ole Miss, App State, Louisiana, Memphis, North Texas, Temple, Tulane, UAB, East Carolina, Tulsa, Navy). The season turns on 1 close game: The Citadel.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 1-11 | 0-8 | #134 | #132 | #133 | #109 |
Tim Albin — year 2, 1-11 career.
OC: NEW
DC: NEW
Nothing went right in Year 1; failed to stay within single digits of any FBS opponent; 11 of 43 players with 200+ snaps return
43% overall, ranked #107 nationally.
Offense 52% · Defense 34%
80 returning starts, 6 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs The Citadel | FCS | -4.9 | 35% | Lean loss |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | @ Ole Miss | #16 / +15.9 | -50.8 | 0% | Upset needed |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | @ App State | #111 / -12.1 | -22.8 | 5% | Upset needed |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs Louisiana | #104 / -9.1 | -20.8 | 7% | Upset needed |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs Memphis | #70 / -1.1 | -28.8 | 3% | Upset needed |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ North Texas | #109 / -11.8 | -23.1 | 5% | Upset needed |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | @ Temple | #102 / -8.7 | -26.2 | 4% | Upset needed |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-30 | vs Tulane | #87 / -5.5 | -24.4 | 5% | Upset needed |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | @ UAB | #124 / -18.1 | -16.8 | 11% | Upset needed |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs East Carolina | #76 / -2.0 | -27.9 | 3% | Upset needed |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ Tulsa | #96 / -7.6 | -27.3 | 3% | Upset needed |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs Navy | #63 / +1.1 | -31.0 | 2% | Upset needed |
0.48
expected wins across 4 games
The Citadel, Ole Miss, App State, Louisiana
0.16
expected wins across 4 games
Memphis, North Texas, Temple, Tulane
0.19
expected wins across 4 games
UAB, East Carolina, Tulsa, Navy
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Conner Harrell vs Cole Gonzales
battle (returner from injury vs WCU/Pitt transfer) limited sample
Harrell decent Sept before major knee injury; Gonzales from Western Carolina via Pitt; Grayson Loftis also in mix
Fbs Margin
Failed to stay within single digits of a single FBS opponent in 2025; 1-11
Projected Rank · 138
Projected dead last in FBS at 138th; SP+ of -32.2
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navy | #63 | +1.1 | #58 | #77 | 47% | #93 |
| 2 | Memphis | #70 | -1.1 | #56 | #95 | 42% | #111 |
| 3 | UTSA | #73 | -1.5 | #47 | #102 | 54% | #57 |
| 4 | East Carolina | #76 | -2.0 | #84 | #71 | 42% | #110 |
| 5 | South Florida | #80 | -2.8 | #59 | #98 | 41% | #113 |
| 6 | Army | #83 | -3.0 | #81 | #82 | 50% | #75 |
| 7 | Tulane | #87 | -5.5 | #99 | #86 | 40% | #117 |
| 8 | Florida Atlantic | #94 | -7.1 | #60 | #120 | 64% | #19 |
| 9 | Tulsa | #96 | -7.6 | #91 | #103 | 62% | #23 |
| 10 | Temple | #102 | -8.7 | #74 | #117 | 53% | #64 |
| 11 | UConn | #107 | -11.2 | #107 | #108 | 31% | #134 |
| 12 | North Texas | #109 | -11.8 | #89 | #123 | 32% | #132 |
| 13 | Rice | #120 | -14.7 | #119 | #110 | 39% | #120 |
| 14 | UAB | #124 | -18.1 | #108 | #132 | 35% | #125 |
| 15 | Charlotte | #138 | -32.4 | #137 | #138 | 43% | #107 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.