A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers enters 2026 rated 11th in the Sun Belt (#119 nationally). The profile is a poor defense (#118) paired with a below average offense (#103). Schedule math puts the season at 4.8 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 5.2. 4 games project as clear underdog spots (West Virginia, Marshall, Louisiana, James Madison). The season turns on 6 close games: Delaware, Liberty, Georgia Southern, App State, Old Dominion, Arkansas State.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 6-7 | 5-3 | #122 | #96 | #129 | #110 |
Ryan Beard — year 1, N/A (new hire) career.
OC: NEW
DC: NEW
Beard from Missouri State; brought 12 former Bears; basically imported MSU's standard; Beck fired during 3rd straight bowl season
42% overall, ranked #112 nationally.
Offense 39% · Defense 44%
74 returning starts, 8 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | @ West Virginia | #66 / +0.8 | -17.1 | 11% | Upset needed |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Fordham | FCS | +13.7 | 85% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | @ Delaware | #114 / -13.0 | -3.3 | 40% | Lean loss |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-24 | vs Liberty | #93 / -6.4 | -4.9 | 35% | Lean loss |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs Georgia Southern | #103 / -8.9 | -2.4 | 43% | Lean loss |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ Marshall | #92 / -6.4 | -9.9 | 22% | Upset needed |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs App State | #111 / -12.1 | +0.8 | 52% | Swing |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | @ Georgia State | #133 / -25.1 | +8.8 | 75% | Lean win |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs Old Dominion | #88 / -5.8 | -5.5 | 33% | Lean loss |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs Arkansas State | #101 / -8.5 | -2.8 | 41% | Lean loss |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ Louisiana | #104 / -9.1 | -7.2 | 29% | Upset needed |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ James Madison | #77 / -2.1 | -14.2 | 14% | Upset needed |
1.70
expected wins across 4 games
West Virginia, Fordham, Delaware, Liberty
1.93
expected wins across 4 games
Georgia Southern, Marshall, App State, Georgia State
1.18
expected wins across 4 games
Old Dominion, Arkansas State, Louisiana, James Madison
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Deuce Bailey vs Trever Jackson
battle (MSU transfer vs Arkansas transfer) limited sample
Bailey followed Beard from Missouri State; Jackson from Arkansas; juco Tre Guerra and freshman Osiris Lopez also in mix
Regression · 17_to_119
From 11-1 17th SP+ in 2020 to projected 119th in 2026; win pct and SP+ fell in 4 of last 5 seasons
Top50 Margin · 6.2-48.6
Avg score in 5 games vs top-50 teams: 48.6 to 6.2; 38.3 PPG vs bottom-20 defenses only 8.3 vs better
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Madison | #77 | -2.1 | #76 | #75 | 30% | #136 |
| 2 | Old Dominion | #88 | -5.8 | #109 | #63 | 40% | #114 |
| 3 | Troy | #90 | -6.0 | #90 | #94 | 39% | #119 |
| 4 | Marshall | #92 | -6.4 | #54 | #124 | 48% | #88 |
| 5 | Louisiana Tech | #100 | -8.3 | #98 | #99 | 56% | #53 |
| 6 | Arkansas State | #101 | -8.5 | #88 | #111 | 49% | #82 |
| 7 | Georgia Southern | #103 | -8.9 | #92 | #109 | 43% | #108 |
| 8 | Louisiana | #104 | -9.1 | #72 | #116 | 49% | #81 |
| 9 | App State | #111 | -12.1 | #102 | #115 | 34% | #127 |
| 10 | South Alabama | #116 | -13.3 | #95 | #125 | 44% | #105 |
| 11 | Coastal Carolina | #119 | -13.8 | #103 | #118 | 42% | #112 |
| 12 | Southern Miss | #131 | -23.3 | #123 | #133 | 22% | #138 |
| 13 | UL Monroe | #132 | -24.3 | #130 | #130 | 51% | #68 |
| 14 | Georgia State | #133 | -25.1 | #120 | #137 | 38% | #121 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.