A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Colorado Buffaloes enters 2026 rated 15th in the Big 12 (#65 nationally). The profile is an above average defense (#57) paired with a middling offense (#64). Schedule math puts the season at 4.2 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 4.6. 6 games project as clear underdog spots (Georgia Tech, Texas Tech, Utah, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Arizona State). The season turns on 5 close games: Northwestern, Baylor, Houston, Cincinnati, UCF.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 3-9 | 1-8 | #96 | #103 | #88 | #114 |
Deion Sanders — year 4, 16-21 career.
OC: Brennan Marion (NEW)
DC: Chris Marve (NEW)
Marion brings instant improvement everywhere; Marve unproven as DC; Sanders health issues
55% overall, ranked #55 nationally.
Offense 57% · Defense 53%
66 returning starts, 6 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-04 | @ Georgia Tech | #43 / +6.0 | -7.6 | 28% | Upset needed |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Weber State | FCS | +28.4 | 97% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | @ Northwestern | #49 / +4.6 | -6.2 | 32% | Lean loss |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ Baylor | #51 / +4.5 | -6.1 | 32% | Lean loss |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs Texas Tech | #7 / +23.1 | -19.7 | 8% | Upset needed |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Utah | #25 / +11.9 | -8.5 | 26% | Upset needed |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ Oklahoma State | #38 / +7.1 | -8.7 | 25% | Upset needed |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs Kansas State | #29 / +10.4 | -7.0 | 29% | Upset needed |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | @ Arizona State | #42 / +6.4 | -8.0 | 27% | Upset needed |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs Houston | #36 / +8.2 | -4.8 | 35% | Lean loss |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ Cincinnati | #50 / +4.5 | -6.1 | 32% | Lean loss |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs UCF | #60 / +2.3 | +1.1 | 53% | Swing |
1.88
expected wins across 4 games
Georgia Tech, Weber State, Northwestern, Baylor
0.88
expected wins across 4 games
Texas Tech, Utah, Oklahoma State, Kansas State
1.48
expected wins across 4 games
Arizona State, Houston, Cincinnati, UCF
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Julian Lewis
returning (redshirt freshman) zero experience
Blue-chipper; Marion offense; if he comes into his own the ceiling is high
Gideon Lampron (LB, from Bowling Green)
123 tackles 1 per 5.8 snaps; 18.5 TFLs 31 run stops; elite tackling machine
Kam Perry (WR, from Miami (Ohio))
22.7 yds per catch 2.8 yds per route; nearly 1000 yds without huge volume; Mr. Big Play
Record 2025 · 3-9
Collapsed to 3-9 and 96th after Hunter/Shedeur departed; 3rd or 4th total reset
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Tech | #7 | +23.1 | #8 | #11 | 65% | #12 |
| 2 | BYU | #18 | +15.5 | #16 | #20 | 64% | #18 |
| 3 | Utah | #25 | +11.9 | #18 | #34 | 55% | #54 |
| 4 | Kansas State | #29 | +10.4 | #17 | #49 | 58% | #38 |
| 5 | Arizona | #30 | +10.2 | #29 | #33 | 60% | #32 |
| 6 | TCU | #34 | +9.1 | #31 | #40 | 51% | #69 |
| 7 | Houston | #36 | +8.2 | #30 | #45 | 65% | #17 |
| 8 | Oklahoma State | #38 | +7.1 | #42 | #52 | 58% | #42 |
| 9 | Arizona State | #42 | +6.4 | #57 | #37 | 51% | #71 |
| 10 | Cincinnati | #50 | +4.5 | #46 | #65 | 57% | #50 |
| 11 | Baylor | #51 | +4.5 | #23 | #87 | 53% | #61 |
| 12 | Kansas | #57 | +3.7 | #51 | #70 | 58% | #39 |
| 13 | UCF | #60 | +2.3 | #79 | #41 | 61% | #29 |
| 14 | Iowa State | #64 | +1.0 | #94 | #42 | 45% | #102 |
| 15 | Colorado | #65 | +0.9 | #64 | #57 | 55% | #55 |
| 16 | West Virginia | #66 | +0.8 | #62 | #66 | 52% | #66 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.