A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Delaware Blue Hens enters 2026 rated 5th in the Conference USA (#114 nationally). The profile is a poor defense (#126) paired with a below average offense (#96). Schedule math puts the season at 5.5 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 5.7. 3 games project as clear underdog spots (Vanderbilt, Virginia, Western Kentucky). The season turns on 6 close games: Coastal Carolina, Liberty, Kennesaw State, Florida International, New Mexico State, Jacksonville State.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 7-6 | 4-4 | #109 | #73 | #126 | #96 |
Ryan Carty — year 5, 33-17 career.
OC: Terence Archer
DC: returning
Carty eased Blue Hens into FBS with initial success; former Blue Hens QB; trusts developmental pipeline; 19th in ret prod in 2025 debut
62% overall, ranked #25 nationally.
Offense 62% · Defense 62%
149 returning starts, 15 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-03 | vs Merrimack | FCS | +14.5 | 86% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | @ Vanderbilt | #31 / +10.0 | -25.5 | 4% | Upset needed |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Coastal Carolina | #119 / -13.8 | +3.3 | 60% | Swing |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ Virginia | #40 / +6.6 | -22.1 | 6% | Upset needed |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-02 | vs Liberty | #93 / -6.4 | -4.1 | 37% | Lean loss |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-13 | @ Middle Tennessee | #135 / -26.0 | +10.5 | 79% | Lean win |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-20 | vs Missouri State | #126 / -18.7 | +8.2 | 74% | Lean win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-27 | @ Western Kentucky | #86 / -5.3 | -10.2 | 22% | Upset needed |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | @ Kennesaw State | #105 / -9.3 | -6.2 | 32% | Lean loss |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs Florida International | #118 / -13.7 | +3.2 | 60% | Swing |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ New Mexico State | #123 / -16.4 | +0.9 | 53% | Swing |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs Jacksonville State | #98 / -7.7 | -2.8 | 41% | Lean loss |
1.56
expected wins across 4 games
Merrimack, Vanderbilt, Coastal Carolina, Virginia
2.12
expected wins across 4 games
Liberty, Middle Tennessee, Missouri State, Western Kentucky
1.86
expected wins across 4 games
Kennesaw State, Florida International, New Mexico State, Jacksonville State
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Nick Minicucci
returning starter experienced
3683 pass yds 23 TDs; line returns 3 starters including all-conf Demboski; Sean Wilson star freshman receiver returns
Fbs Debut · 7-6
Immediately league-average CUSA team; upset UConn; won 4 of 6 one-score finishes; won inaugural bowl; 19th in ret prod
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Kentucky | #86 | -5.3 | #73 | #101 | 32% | #133 |
| 2 | Liberty | #93 | -6.4 | #66 | #104 | 57% | #49 |
| 3 | Jacksonville State | #98 | -7.7 | #77 | #107 | 57% | #47 |
| 4 | Kennesaw State | #105 | -9.3 | #101 | #97 | 49% | #83 |
| 5 | Delaware | #114 | -13.0 | #96 | #126 | 62% | #25 |
| 6 | Florida International | #118 | -13.7 | #100 | #122 | 47% | #95 |
| 7 | New Mexico State | #123 | -16.4 | #118 | #113 | 51% | #73 |
| 8 | Missouri State | #126 | -18.7 | #122 | #121 | 34% | #128 |
| 9 | Middle Tennessee | #135 | -26.0 | #133 | #134 | 36% | #122 |
| 10 | Sam Houston | #136 | -26.3 | #131 | #135 | 49% | #80 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.