A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
East Carolina Pirates enters 2026 rated 4th in the American (#76 nationally). The profile is a middling defense (#71) paired with a below average offense (#84). Schedule math puts the season at 8.0 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 7.8. 1 game project as clear underdog spots (Alabama). The season turns on 4 close games: Old Dominion, Memphis, South Florida, Army.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 9-4 | 6-2 | #38 | #33 | #52 | #82 |
Blake Harrell — year 2 (first full), 14-5 career.
OC: Jordan Davis (NEW from N. Texas)
DC: Jordon Hankins (NEW from Memphis)
Both coordinators gone; Harrell grabbed N. Texas OC and Memphis DC; 10 offensive starters gone; focus on mid-major portal production
42% overall, ranked #110 nationally.
Offense 33% · Defense 50%
41 returning starts, 15 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | @ Alabama | #11 / +18.2 | -22.7 | 6% | Upset needed |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs App State | #111 / -12.1 | +12.6 | 83% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | @ Old Dominion | #88 / -5.8 | +1.3 | 54% | Swing |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs North Carolina Central | FCS | +25.5 | 96% | Should win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs Rice | #120 / -14.7 | +15.2 | 87% | Should win |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-15 | @ UAB | #124 / -18.1 | +13.6 | 85% | Should win |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-22 | @ Memphis | #70 / -1.1 | -3.4 | 40% | Lean loss |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs Temple | #102 / -8.7 | +9.2 | 76% | Lean win |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs South Florida | #80 / -2.8 | +3.3 | 60% | Swing |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ Charlotte | #138 / -32.4 | +27.9 | 97% | Should win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ Army | #83 / -3.0 | -1.5 | 45% | Swing |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-27 | vs Florida Atlantic | #94 / -7.1 | +7.6 | 72% | Lean win |
2.38
expected wins across 4 games
Alabama, App State, Old Dominion, North Carolina Central
2.87
expected wins across 4 games
Rice, UAB, Memphis, Temple
2.75
expected wins across 4 games
South Florida, Charlotte, Army, Florida Atlantic
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Mitch Griffis vs Emory Williams
battle (Texas Tech transfer vs Miami transfer) experienced
Griffis: scrambler-gambler 2314 yds 17 TDs over 5 seasons at Wake/Tech; Williams: pocket-based 70.8 career QBR; 1-1 as spot starter at Miami
Harrell Impact · 14-5
Went 5-14 in 19 games before Harrell; 14-5 in first 19 with him; first 9+ wins in 12 years; first top-40 SP+ in 25 years
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 22 | East Carolina at Memphis | Memphis new HC Huff with almost completely new two-deep; home stance could stake title spot |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navy | #63 | +1.1 | #58 | #77 | 47% | #93 |
| 2 | Memphis | #70 | -1.1 | #56 | #95 | 42% | #111 |
| 3 | UTSA | #73 | -1.5 | #47 | #102 | 54% | #57 |
| 4 | East Carolina | #76 | -2.0 | #84 | #71 | 42% | #110 |
| 5 | South Florida | #80 | -2.8 | #59 | #98 | 41% | #113 |
| 6 | Army | #83 | -3.0 | #81 | #82 | 50% | #75 |
| 7 | Tulane | #87 | -5.5 | #99 | #86 | 40% | #117 |
| 8 | Florida Atlantic | #94 | -7.1 | #60 | #120 | 64% | #19 |
| 9 | Tulsa | #96 | -7.6 | #91 | #103 | 62% | #23 |
| 10 | Temple | #102 | -8.7 | #74 | #117 | 53% | #64 |
| 11 | UConn | #107 | -11.2 | #107 | #108 | 31% | #134 |
| 12 | North Texas | #109 | -11.8 | #89 | #123 | 32% | #132 |
| 13 | Rice | #120 | -14.7 | #119 | #110 | 39% | #120 |
| 14 | UAB | #124 | -18.1 | #108 | #132 | 35% | #125 |
| 15 | Charlotte | #138 | -32.4 | #137 | #138 | 43% | #107 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.