A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Eastern Michigan Eagles enters 2026 rated 8th in the MAC (#121 nationally). The profile is a poor defense (#112) paired with a poor offense (#115). Schedule math puts the season at 6.0 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 6.0. 3 games project as clear underdog spots (Michigan State, Wisconsin, Western Michigan). The season turns on 5 close games: San José State, Akron, Toledo, Ohio, Central Michigan.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 4-8 | 3-5 | #119 | #113 | #114 | #73 |
Chris Creighton — year 13, 61-83 career.
OC: Tate Omli/Kasey Teegardin (co-coordinators)
DC: Tate Omli/Kasey Teegardin
4 of 7 seven-win seasons in 51 FBS years; gone 9-4 to 4-8 in 3 years; but best continuity in conference; rebound opportunity
62% overall, ranked #24 nationally.
Offense 59% · Defense 64%
133 returning starts, 11 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-08-29 | vs Sacramento State | #130 / -22.7 | +10.2 | 78% | Lean win |
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-04 | vs San José State | #122 / -15.5 | +3.0 | 59% | Swing |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | @ Michigan State | #67 / +0.4 | -17.9 | 10% | Upset needed |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | @ Wisconsin | #61 / +1.8 | -19.3 | 8% | Upset needed |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs Lindenwood | FCS | +12.5 | 83% | Should win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ Massachusetts | #137 / -30.9 | +13.4 | 84% | Should win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ Akron | #127 / -19.5 | +2.0 | 56% | Swing |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Toledo | #108 / -11.5 | -1.0 | 47% | Swing |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ Ohio | #117 / -13.6 | -3.9 | 38% | Lean loss |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-04 | vs Central Michigan neutral | #113 / -12.4 | -2.6 | 42% | Lean loss |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-17 | @ Western Michigan | #95 / -7.2 | -10.3 | 22% | Upset needed |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-24 | vs Kent State | #128 / -20.1 | +7.6 | 72% | Lean win |
1.55
expected wins across 4 games
Sacramento State, San José State, Michigan State, Wisconsin
2.70
expected wins across 4 games
Lindenwood, Massachusetts, Akron, Toledo
1.74
expected wins across 4 games
Ohio, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Kent State
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Noah Kim
returning starter experienced
2817 pass yds 18 TDs; excellent sack avoidance; go-route master Devereaux back; 5 offensive starters return (MAC coup)
Creighton Era · 58-62
4 of 7 seven-win seasons in 51 FBS years; 58-62 over last decade adjusting for terrible historical standards is fantastic; decline 3 straight years
Revolving Door 2025
9 linemen 4 LBs 12 DBs started at least 1 game; 17 of 25 return; struggle could pay off with experience
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami (OH) | #81 | -2.9 | #111 | #48 | 49% | #84 |
| 2 | Western Michigan | #95 | -7.2 | #112 | #68 | 51% | #72 |
| 3 | Toledo | #108 | -11.5 | #121 | #84 | 33% | #130 |
| 4 | Buffalo | #110 | -11.9 | #126 | #85 | 30% | #135 |
| 5 | Central Michigan | #113 | -12.4 | #116 | #92 | 46% | #100 |
| 6 | Bowling Green | #115 | -13.3 | #128 | #88 | 35% | #124 |
| 7 | Ohio | #117 | -13.6 | #134 | #72 | 33% | #129 |
| 8 | Eastern Michigan | #121 | -15.0 | #115 | #112 | 62% | #24 |
| 9 | Akron | #127 | -19.5 | #135 | #106 | 40% | #115 |
| 10 | Kent State | #128 | -20.1 | #125 | #127 | 48% | #87 |
| 11 | Sacramento State | #130 | -22.7 | #127 | #131 | 32% | #131 |
| 12 | Ball State | #134 | -25.2 | #136 | #128 | 36% | #123 |
| 13 | Massachusetts | #137 | -30.9 | #138 | #136 | 46% | #96 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.