A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Florida Gators enters 2026 rated 9th in the SEC (#19 nationally). The profile is an elite defense (#12) paired with a strong offense (#39). Schedule math puts the season at 7.1 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 7.0. 2 games project as clear underdog spots (Texas, Georgia). The season turns on 5 close games: Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri, Oklahoma, Florida State.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 4-8 | 2-6 | #63 | #89 | #43 | #17 |
Jon Sumrall — year 1, N/A (new hire) career.
OC: Buster Faulkner (NEW)
DC: Brad White (retained)
Sumrall from Tulane; Faulkner from Georgia Tech
66% overall, ranked #11 nationally.
Offense 55% · Defense 77%
122 returning starts, 11 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs Florida Atlantic | #94 / -7.1 | +24.5 | 96% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Campbell | FCS | +42.4 | 100% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | @ Auburn | #26 / +11.2 | +1.2 | 54% | Swing |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs Ole Miss | #16 / +15.9 | +1.5 | 55% | Swing |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ Missouri | #20 / +14.8 | -2.4 | 43% | Lean loss |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs South Carolina | #24 / +12.1 | +5.3 | 66% | Lean win |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | @ Texas | #6 / +23.7 | -11.3 | 20% | Upset needed |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs Georgia neutral | #4 / +25.5 | -10.6 | 21% | Upset needed |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs Oklahoma | #12 / +17.2 | +0.2 | 51% | Swing |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ Kentucky | #53 / +3.8 | +8.6 | 75% | Lean win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs Vanderbilt | #31 / +10.0 | +7.4 | 72% | Lean win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-27 | @ Florida State | #35 / +8.8 | +3.6 | 61% | Swing |
3.04
expected wins across 4 games
Florida Atlantic, Campbell, Auburn, Ole Miss
1.49
expected wins across 4 games
Missouri, South Carolina, Texas, Georgia
2.58
expected wins across 4 games
Oklahoma, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Florida State
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Aaron Philo
transfer (Georgia Tech backup) limited sample
Sumrall's OC Faulkner recruited him at GT; accurate mostly short; exciting rushing ability
Def Sp Plus Recent · Better than offense recent years
prose
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | #4 | +25.5 | #5 | #5 | 68% | #9 |
| 2 | Texas | #6 | +23.7 | #7 | #8 | 68% | #6 |
| 3 | Texas A&M | #9 | +20.3 | #10 | #14 | 65% | #15 |
| 4 | LSU | #10 | +20.2 | #21 | #2 | 61% | #30 |
| 5 | Alabama | #11 | +18.2 | #32 | #4 | 48% | #90 |
| 6 | Oklahoma | #12 | +17.2 | #27 | #10 | 68% | #7 |
| 7 | Tennessee | #15 | +16.0 | #4 | #50 | 62% | #26 |
| 8 | Ole Miss | #16 | +15.9 | #11 | #25 | 61% | #28 |
| 9 | Florida | #19 | +14.9 | #39 | #12 | 66% | #11 |
| 10 | Missouri | #20 | +14.8 | #24 | #15 | 51% | #70 |
| 11 | South Carolina | #24 | +12.1 | #44 | #21 | 68% | #5 |
| 12 | Auburn | #26 | +11.2 | #55 | #18 | 57% | #46 |
| 13 | Vanderbilt | #31 | +10.0 | #15 | #56 | 44% | #106 |
| 14 | Arkansas | #47 | +5.0 | #13 | #91 | 55% | #56 |
| 15 | Mississippi State | #52 | +3.9 | #41 | #76 | 48% | #86 |
| 16 | Kentucky | #53 | +3.8 | #75 | #36 | 46% | #98 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.