A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Florida Atlantic Owls enters 2026 rated 8th in the American (#94 nationally). The profile is a poor defense (#120) paired with an above average offense (#60). Schedule math puts the season at 6.1 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 6.2. 2 games project as clear underdog spots (Florida, East Carolina). The season turns on 6 close games: Navy, Army, North Texas, UTSA, Tulsa, South Florida.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 4-8 | 3-5 | #99 | #64 | #131 | #20 |
Zach Kittley — year 2, 4-8 career.
OC: returning
DC: Brett Dewhurst
Kittley brought exciting transfer class; Veltkamp 8th nationally in pass yds; nation's most up-tempo offense; 5 straight losing seasons
64% overall, ranked #19 nationally.
Offense 62% · Defense 65%
133 returning starts, 7 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | @ Florida | #19 / +14.9 | -24.5 | 4% | Upset needed |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Navy | #63 / +1.1 | -5.7 | 33% | Lean loss |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Florida International | #118 / -13.7 | +9.1 | 76% | Lean win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ UL Monroe | #132 / -24.3 | +14.7 | 86% | Should win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs Texas Southern | FCS | +20.4 | 93% | Should win |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | @ Army | #83 / -3.0 | -6.6 | 30% | Lean loss |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | vs Rice | #120 / -14.7 | +10.1 | 78% | Lean win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-29 | @ North Texas | #109 / -11.8 | +2.2 | 57% | Swing |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-06 | vs UTSA | #73 / -1.5 | -3.1 | 40% | Lean loss |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ Tulsa | #96 / -7.6 | -2.0 | 44% | Lean loss |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs South Florida | #80 / -2.8 | -1.8 | 44% | Lean loss |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-27 | @ East Carolina | #76 / -2.0 | -7.6 | 28% | Upset needed |
1.99
expected wins across 4 games
Florida, Navy, Florida International, UL Monroe
2.58
expected wins across 4 games
Texas Southern, Army, Rice, North Texas
1.56
expected wins across 4 games
UTSA, Tulsa, South Florida, East Carolina
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Caden Veltkamp
returning starter experienced
8th nationally with 3641 pass yds; sat out spring after shoulder surgery; nation's most up-tempo offense
Kenyon Garner (DE, from Livingstone (D2))
28 TFLs 15 sacks at D2; 4 games with 4+ TFLs; 6-4 230 lbs; raw production monster
Losing Streak · 5
5 straight losing seasons; avg 100.6 SP+ ranking; 0-7 vs top-100 opponents in 2025
Veltkamp Yds · 3641
Veltkamp 8th nationally with 3641 pass yds; sat out spring shoulder surgery; nation's most up-tempo offense
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navy | #63 | +1.1 | #58 | #77 | 47% | #93 |
| 2 | Memphis | #70 | -1.1 | #56 | #95 | 42% | #111 |
| 3 | UTSA | #73 | -1.5 | #47 | #102 | 54% | #57 |
| 4 | East Carolina | #76 | -2.0 | #84 | #71 | 42% | #110 |
| 5 | South Florida | #80 | -2.8 | #59 | #98 | 41% | #113 |
| 6 | Army | #83 | -3.0 | #81 | #82 | 50% | #75 |
| 7 | Tulane | #87 | -5.5 | #99 | #86 | 40% | #117 |
| 8 | Florida Atlantic | #94 | -7.1 | #60 | #120 | 64% | #19 |
| 9 | Tulsa | #96 | -7.6 | #91 | #103 | 62% | #23 |
| 10 | Temple | #102 | -8.7 | #74 | #117 | 53% | #64 |
| 11 | UConn | #107 | -11.2 | #107 | #108 | 31% | #134 |
| 12 | North Texas | #109 | -11.8 | #89 | #123 | 32% | #132 |
| 13 | Rice | #120 | -14.7 | #119 | #110 | 39% | #120 |
| 14 | UAB | #124 | -18.1 | #108 | #132 | 35% | #125 |
| 15 | Charlotte | #138 | -32.4 | #137 | #138 | 43% | #107 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.