A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors enters 2026 rated 5th in the Mountain West (#84 nationally). The profile is a below average defense (#93) paired with a middling offense (#69). Schedule math puts the season at 7.5 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 7.3. 1 game project as clear underdog spots (Arizona State). The season turns on 5 close games: Stanford, UNLV, Wyoming, New Mexico, North Dakota State.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 9-4 | 5-3 | #68 | #66 | #69 | #8 |
Timmy Chang — year 5, 22-29 career.
OC: returning
DC: returning
Slow foundation building; 5-7 107th to 9-4 68th; predicted CFP run (with snark); Stanford and ASU on schedule
45% overall, ranked #101 nationally.
Offense 54% · Defense 37%
99 returning starts, 12 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-08-29 | @ Stanford | #75 / -1.9 | -4.5 | 36% | Lean loss |
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-06 | vs UNLV | #59 / +2.8 | -4.2 | 37% | Lean loss |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs New Mexico State | #123 / -16.4 | +15.0 | 87% | Should win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ Wyoming | #106 / -9.6 | +3.2 | 60% | Swing |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs San José State | #122 / -15.5 | +14.1 | 85% | Should win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ Arizona State | #42 / +6.4 | -12.8 | 17% | Upset needed |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs New Mexico | #68 / -0.5 | -0.9 | 47% | Swing |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ Northern Illinois | #125 / -18.2 | +11.8 | 81% | Should win |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | @ UTEP | #129 / -20.5 | +14.1 | 85% | Should win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-15 | vs North Dakota State | #72 / -1.4 | +0.0 | 50% | Swing |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ Nevada | #112 / -12.2 | +5.8 | 67% | Lean win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs Sacramento State | #130 / -22.7 | +21.3 | 93% | Should win |
2.20
expected wins across 4 games
Stanford, UNLV, New Mexico State, Wyoming
2.31
expected wins across 4 games
San José State, Arizona State, New Mexico, Northern Illinois
2.96
expected wins across 4 games
UTEP, North Dakota State, Nevada, Sacramento State
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Micah Alejado
returning starter experienced
3106 pass yds 24 TDs as redshirt freshman despite hobbled; if healthy could be special; slot man Ashlock back
Chang Progress · 107_to_68
From 5-7 107th in 2024 to 9-4 68th in 2025; slow foundation building paying off; Alejado 3106 yds 24 TDs as redshirt frosh
Palmer Disruption · 9
5-8 180 lb nickel Elijah Palmer made 9 TFLs 2 INTs 9 PBUs; plays big despite size; one of best G6 nickelbacks
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Sept. 5 | UNLV at Hawaii | Rebels' gauntlet starts immediately; after hosting Memphis in Week 0 head to islands for Week 1; Arnold must be up to speed from start |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNLV | #59 | +2.8 | #33 | #89 | 40% | #116 |
| 2 | New Mexico | #68 | -0.5 | #68 | #73 | 63% | #21 |
| 3 | North Dakota State | #72 | -1.4 | #82 | #67 | 52% | #65 |
| 4 | Air Force | #79 | -2.4 | #70 | #83 | 59% | #37 |
| 5 | Hawai'i | #84 | -3.9 | #69 | #93 | 45% | #101 |
| 6 | Wyoming | #106 | -9.6 | #124 | #58 | 40% | #118 |
| 7 | Nevada | #112 | -12.2 | #117 | #96 | 48% | #91 |
| 8 | San José State | #122 | -15.5 | #114 | #114 | 24% | #137 |
| 9 | Northern Illinois | #125 | -18.2 | #132 | #105 | 48% | #85 |
| 10 | UTEP | #129 | -20.5 | #129 | #119 | 35% | #126 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.