A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Houston Cougars enters 2026 rated 7th in the Big 12 (#36 nationally). The profile is an above average defense (#45) paired with a strong offense (#30). Schedule math puts the season at 7.5 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 7.4. 1 game project as clear underdog spots (Texas Tech). The season turns on 3 close games: Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Utah.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 10-3 | 6-3 | #40 | #44 | #46 | #99 |
Willie Fritz — year 3, 14-11 career.
OC: Slade Nagle
DC: Austin Armstrong
Both coordinators clicked in Year 2; Nagle offense surged 118th to 44th; Armstrong held fort after Wood left
65% overall, ranked #17 nationally.
Offense 71% · Defense 58%
152 returning starts, 14 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs Oregon State | #91 / -6.3 | +17.0 | 89% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Southern | FCS | +35.7 | 99% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | @ Texas Tech | #7 / +23.1 | -17.4 | 10% | Upset needed |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ Georgia Southern | #103 / -8.9 | +14.6 | 86% | Should win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs UCF | #60 / +2.3 | +8.4 | 74% | Lean win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ Kansas State | #29 / +10.4 | -4.7 | 36% | Lean loss |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Oklahoma State | #38 / +7.1 | +3.6 | 61% | Swing |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ Utah | #25 / +11.9 | -6.2 | 32% | Lean loss |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs Cincinnati | #50 / +4.5 | +6.2 | 68% | Lean win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ Colorado | #65 / +0.9 | +4.8 | 65% | Lean win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ West Virginia | #66 / +0.8 | +4.9 | 65% | Lean win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs Baylor | #51 / +4.5 | +6.2 | 68% | Lean win |
2.85
expected wins across 4 games
Oregon State, Southern, Texas Tech, Georgia Southern
2.02
expected wins across 4 games
UCF, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Utah
2.66
expected wins across 4 games
Cincinnati, Colorado, West Virginia, Baylor
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Conner Weigman
returning starter experienced
2705 pass yds 795 rush yds 36 total TDs; Year 3 Fritz system; if banged up 5-star freshman Henderson can fill in
Fritz Yr1 Win Pct · 50.7
Fritz Year 1 all-time win pct .507; rises to .730 in Year 2 and .725 in Year 3
Off Rank Jump · 118_to_44
Offense surged from 118th to 44th under Nagle in 2025
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Tech | #7 | +23.1 | #8 | #11 | 65% | #12 |
| 2 | BYU | #18 | +15.5 | #16 | #20 | 64% | #18 |
| 3 | Utah | #25 | +11.9 | #18 | #34 | 55% | #54 |
| 4 | Kansas State | #29 | +10.4 | #17 | #49 | 58% | #38 |
| 5 | Arizona | #30 | +10.2 | #29 | #33 | 60% | #32 |
| 6 | TCU | #34 | +9.1 | #31 | #40 | 51% | #69 |
| 7 | Houston | #36 | +8.2 | #30 | #45 | 65% | #17 |
| 8 | Oklahoma State | #38 | +7.1 | #42 | #52 | 58% | #42 |
| 9 | Arizona State | #42 | +6.4 | #57 | #37 | 51% | #71 |
| 10 | Cincinnati | #50 | +4.5 | #46 | #65 | 57% | #50 |
| 11 | Baylor | #51 | +4.5 | #23 | #87 | 53% | #61 |
| 12 | Kansas | #57 | +3.7 | #51 | #70 | 58% | #39 |
| 13 | UCF | #60 | +2.3 | #79 | #41 | 61% | #29 |
| 14 | Iowa State | #64 | +1.0 | #94 | #42 | 45% | #102 |
| 15 | Colorado | #65 | +0.9 | #64 | #57 | 55% | #55 |
| 16 | West Virginia | #66 | +0.8 | #62 | #66 | 52% | #66 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.