A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Indiana Hoosiers enters 2026 rated 3rd in the Big Ten (#5 nationally). The profile is an elite defense (#6) paired with an elite offense (#9). Schedule math puts the season at 10.1 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 9.9. The season turns on 1 close game: Ohio State.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 16-0 | 10-0 | #1 | #2 | #2 | #22 |
Curt Cignetti — year 3, 27-2 career.
OC: Mike Shanahan
DC: Bryant Haines
Scouting-and-development advantage; likes this year's transfer class better than last year's
56% overall, ranked #52 nationally.
Offense 54% · Defense 58%
139 returning starts, 20 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs North Texas | #109 / -11.8 | +38.8 | 99% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Howard | FCS | +52.0 | 100% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Western Kentucky | #86 / -5.3 | +32.3 | 98% | Should win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs Northwestern | #49 / +4.6 | +22.4 | 94% | Should win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-04 | @ Rutgers | #62 / +1.8 | +20.2 | 93% | Should win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ Nebraska | #37 / +7.7 | +14.3 | 86% | Should win |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Ohio State | #1 / +31.8 | -4.8 | 35% | Lean loss |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ Michigan | #14 / +16.1 | +5.9 | 68% | Lean win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs Minnesota | #45 / +5.2 | +21.8 | 94% | Should win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs USC | #13 / +16.8 | +10.2 | 78% | Lean win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ Washington | #21 / +14.5 | +7.5 | 72% | Lean win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs Purdue | #82 / -2.9 | +29.9 | 98% | Should win |
3.92
expected wins across 4 games
North Texas, Howard, Western Kentucky, Northwestern
2.81
expected wins across 4 games
Rutgers, Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan
3.42
expected wins across 4 games
Minnesota, USC, Washington, Purdue
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Josh Hoover
transfer (TCU) experienced
9629 career pass yds 71 TDs; more proven than Mendoza was at this time last year; Cignetti's ideal replacement for Heisman winner
Josh Hoover (QB, from TCU)
9629 career pass yds / 71 TDs; replaces Heisman winner Mendoza
Record 2Yr · 27-2
Flipped from 9-27 over 3 seasons to 27-2 over 2; losingest team in major CFB history now defending champs
Becker Ypr · 3.7
Charlie Becker averaged 3.7 yds per route after injuries thrust him into role; 28 catches 574 yds in final 6 games
Draft Picks · 8
8 total NFL draft picks gone; Mendoza two 1000-yd RBs two 800-yd receivers all departed
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 17 | Ohio State at Indiana | Big Ten title game rematch; defending champs host No.1 SP+ team; conference desperately trying to ditch title games |
| Oct. 24 | Indiana at Michigan | Cignetti champs vs Whittingham Wolverines; Michigan potentially chest-puffing with chip on shoulder |
| Nov. 21 | Indiana at Washington | Washington a mystery but sneaky big late-season game; Indiana's toughest remaining road test |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | #1 | +31.8 | #2 | #1 | 60% | #31 |
| 2 | Oregon | #2 | +28.3 | #1 | #3 | 66% | #12 |
| 3 | Indiana | #5 | +24.5 | #9 | #6 | 56% | #52 |
| 4 | USC | #13 | +16.8 | #6 | #29 | 65% | #14 |
| 5 | Michigan | #14 | +16.1 | #20 | #13 | 63% | #20 |
| 6 | Penn State | #17 | +15.7 | #14 | #23 | 52% | #67 |
| 7 | Washington | #21 | +14.5 | #22 | #19 | 65% | #16 |
| 8 | Iowa | #22 | +13.6 | #38 | #17 | 44% | #104 |
| 9 | Illinois | #33 | +9.3 | #28 | #44 | 50% | #76 |
| 10 | Nebraska | #37 | +7.7 | #49 | #39 | 69% | #3 |
| 11 | Minnesota | #45 | +5.2 | #71 | #24 | 68% | #8 |
| 12 | UCLA | #46 | +5.1 | #52 | #54 | 67% | #10 |
| 13 | Northwestern | #49 | +4.6 | #78 | #28 | 57% | #44 |
| 14 | Maryland | #55 | +3.8 | #65 | #43 | 71% | #2 |
| 15 | Wisconsin | #61 | +1.8 | #106 | #22 | 59% | #35 |
| 16 | Rutgers | #62 | +1.8 | #37 | #90 | 47% | #92 |
| 17 | Michigan State | #67 | +0.4 | #61 | #69 | 46% | #97 |
| 18 | Purdue | #82 | -2.9 | #86 | #79 | 58% | #40 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.