A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Iowa State Cyclones enters 2026 rated 14th in the Big 12 (#64 nationally). The profile is an above average defense (#42) paired with a below average offense (#94). Schedule math puts the season at 5.0 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 5.3. 5 games project as clear underdog spots (Iowa, Utah, BYU, Arizona, Kansas State). The season turns on 5 close games: West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Cincinnati, UCF.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 8-4 | 5-4 | #33 | #63 | #26 | #27 |
Jimmy Rogers — year 1, N/A (new hire) career.
OC: NEW
DC: Jesse Bobbit (NEW)
Rogers from SDSU/Wazzu; brought Bobbit and 12 ex-Cougars; biggest teardown in country
45% overall, ranked #102 nationally.
Offense 44% · Defense 46%
13 returning starts, 12 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs Southeast Missouri State | FCS | +28.5 | 97% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | @ Iowa | #22 / +13.6 | -15.1 | 13% | Upset needed |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Bowling Green | #115 / -13.3 | +16.8 | 89% | Should win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs Utah | #25 / +11.9 | -8.4 | 26% | Upset needed |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs West Virginia | #66 / +0.8 | +2.7 | 58% | Swing |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ BYU | #18 / +15.5 | -17.0 | 11% | Upset needed |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ Arizona | #30 / +10.2 | -11.7 | 19% | Upset needed |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs Oklahoma State | #38 / +7.1 | -3.6 | 39% | Lean loss |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | @ Baylor | #51 / +4.5 | -6.0 | 32% | Lean loss |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs Cincinnati | #50 / +4.5 | -1.0 | 47% | Swing |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-20 | @ UCF | #60 / +2.3 | -3.8 | 38% | Lean loss |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs Kansas State | #29 / +10.4 | -6.9 | 30% | Upset needed |
2.25
expected wins across 4 games
Southeast Missouri State, Iowa, Bowling Green, Utah
1.27
expected wins across 4 games
West Virginia, BYU, Arizona, Oklahoma State
1.47
expected wins across 4 games
Baylor, Cincinnati, UCF, Kansas State
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Jaylen Raynor
transfer (Arkansas State) experienced
8694 pass yds 1707 rush yds at Ark State; receiving corps has potential with Hayes transfer
Omari Hayes (WR, from Tulane)
3.0 yds per route (elite); 13.2 yds per catch on shorter routes; no drops until conf title game
Transfers Out · 55
55 transfers left after Campbell to Penn State; about half went to PSU
Offensive Returnees Max · 87
No offensive returnee had more than 87 yds from scrimmage
Defensive Returnees · 5
23 defenders saw 100+ snaps in 2025; only 5 return; none with 250+ snaps
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Tech | #7 | +23.1 | #8 | #11 | 65% | #12 |
| 2 | BYU | #18 | +15.5 | #16 | #20 | 64% | #18 |
| 3 | Utah | #25 | +11.9 | #18 | #34 | 55% | #54 |
| 4 | Kansas State | #29 | +10.4 | #17 | #49 | 58% | #38 |
| 5 | Arizona | #30 | +10.2 | #29 | #33 | 60% | #32 |
| 6 | TCU | #34 | +9.1 | #31 | #40 | 51% | #69 |
| 7 | Houston | #36 | +8.2 | #30 | #45 | 65% | #17 |
| 8 | Oklahoma State | #38 | +7.1 | #42 | #52 | 58% | #42 |
| 9 | Arizona State | #42 | +6.4 | #57 | #37 | 51% | #71 |
| 10 | Cincinnati | #50 | +4.5 | #46 | #65 | 57% | #50 |
| 11 | Baylor | #51 | +4.5 | #23 | #87 | 53% | #61 |
| 12 | Kansas | #57 | +3.7 | #51 | #70 | 58% | #39 |
| 13 | UCF | #60 | +2.3 | #79 | #41 | 61% | #29 |
| 14 | Iowa State | #64 | +1.0 | #94 | #42 | 45% | #102 |
| 15 | Colorado | #65 | +0.9 | #64 | #57 | 55% | #55 |
| 16 | West Virginia | #66 | +0.8 | #62 | #66 | 52% | #66 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.