A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks enters 2026 rated 3rd in the Conference USA (#98 nationally). The profile is a poor defense (#107) paired with a middling offense (#77). Schedule math puts the season at 7.9 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 7.8. 1 game project as clear underdog spots (North Dakota State). The season turns on 5 close games: Ohio, Georgia Southern, Kennesaw State, Western Kentucky, Delaware.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 9-5 | 7-2 | #92 | #67 | #102 | #124 |
Charles Kelly — year 2, 9-5 career.
OC: Taylor Housewright (NEW)
DC: returning
Housewright from Montana State loves run game; replaces Trickett (Maryland); Kelly not a continuity hire but solid
57% overall, ranked #47 nationally.
Offense 60% · Defense 54%
119 returning starts, 15 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-08-29 | @ North Dakota State | #72 / -1.4 | -8.8 | 25% | Upset needed |
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs Eastern Kentucky | FCS | +19.8 | 92% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | @ Ohio | #117 / -13.6 | +3.4 | 60% | Swing |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Georgia Southern | #103 / -8.9 | +3.7 | 61% | Swing |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs Middle Tennessee | #135 / -26.0 | +20.8 | 93% | Should win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-07 | @ Kennesaw State | #105 / -9.3 | -0.9 | 47% | Swing |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-14 | vs Florida International | #118 / -13.7 | +8.5 | 74% | Lean win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-29 | @ New Mexico State | #123 / -16.4 | +6.2 | 68% | Lean win |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-08 | vs Sam Houston | #136 / -26.3 | +21.1 | 93% | Should win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ Western Kentucky | #86 / -5.3 | -4.9 | 35% | Lean loss |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs Missouri State | #126 / -18.7 | +13.5 | 84% | Should win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ Delaware | #114 / -13.0 | +2.8 | 59% | Swing |
2.39
expected wins across 4 games
North Dakota State, Eastern Kentucky, Ohio, Georgia Southern
2.83
expected wins across 4 games
Middle Tennessee, Kennesaw State, Florida International, New Mexico State
2.71
expected wins across 4 games
Sam Houston, Western Kentucky, Missouri State, Delaware
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Caden Creel
returning starter limited sample
1514 pass yds 1190 rush yds as sophomore; must replace Cook at RB; Housewright loves run game; Creel role may expand
Amarii Atchison (OL, from FCS (All-SoCon))
6-8 All-Southern Conference selection; part of Jax State strong OL transfer batch
Fbs Record · 27-12
9 wins each of 3 FBS seasons; 2 straight CUSA title games winning 1; among most impressive FBS jumps
One Score 2025 · 5-4
9 one-score finishes winning 5; slipped to 92nd in SP+ despite 9 wins; roller coaster season
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 7 | Jax State at Kennesaw St. | 2025 title game rematch on Wednesday night; Owls and Hilltoppers are hinge teams; each makes 3 appearances on this list |
| Nov. 14 | Jax State at WKU | 4 meetings in 3 seasons; 1 was CUSA title other 3 decided by 3 or fewer; WKU begins 3 straight huge games to finish regular season |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Kentucky | #86 | -5.3 | #73 | #101 | 32% | #133 |
| 2 | Liberty | #93 | -6.4 | #66 | #104 | 57% | #49 |
| 3 | Jacksonville State | #98 | -7.7 | #77 | #107 | 57% | #47 |
| 4 | Kennesaw State | #105 | -9.3 | #101 | #97 | 49% | #83 |
| 5 | Delaware | #114 | -13.0 | #96 | #126 | 62% | #25 |
| 6 | Florida International | #118 | -13.7 | #100 | #122 | 47% | #95 |
| 7 | New Mexico State | #123 | -16.4 | #118 | #113 | 51% | #73 |
| 8 | Missouri State | #126 | -18.7 | #122 | #121 | 34% | #128 |
| 9 | Middle Tennessee | #135 | -26.0 | #133 | #134 | 36% | #122 |
| 10 | Sam Houston | #136 | -26.3 | #131 | #135 | 49% | #80 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.