A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
James Madison Dukes is the highest-rated team in the Sun Belt at #77 nationally. The profile is a middling defense (#75) paired with a middling offense (#76). Schedule math puts the season at 8.8 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 8.5. The season turns on 2 close games: San Diego State, Old Dominion.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 12-2 | 9-0 | #27 | #18 | #40 | #100 |
Billy Napier — year 1, N/A (new hire) career.
OC: NEW
DC: NEW
Napier replaces Chesney (UCLA); built Sun Belt juggernaut at Louisiana 34-5 from 2019-21; 41 transfers in; only 4 returnees with 300+ snaps
30% overall, ranked #136 nationally.
Offense 27% · Defense 32%
30 returning starts, 14 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs Liberty | #93 / -6.4 | +6.8 | 70% | Lean win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Wagner | FCS | +25.4 | 96% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-20 | @ San Diego State | #71 / -1.3 | -3.3 | 40% | Lean loss |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ Old Dominion | #88 / -5.8 | +1.2 | 54% | Swing |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs Marshall | #92 / -6.4 | +6.8 | 70% | Lean win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ Georgia Southern | #103 / -8.9 | +4.3 | 63% | Lean win |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Georgia State | #133 / -25.1 | +25.5 | 96% | Should win |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-22 | @ App State | #111 / -12.1 | +7.5 | 72% | Lean win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-29 | vs Troy | #90 / -6.0 | +6.4 | 69% | Lean win |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-06 | @ Southern Miss | #131 / -23.3 | +18.7 | 91% | Should win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ UConn | #107 / -11.2 | +6.6 | 70% | Lean win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs Coastal Carolina | #119 / -13.8 | +14.2 | 86% | Should win |
2.60
expected wins across 4 games
Liberty, Wagner, San Diego State, Old Dominion
3.01
expected wins across 4 games
Marshall, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, App State
3.15
expected wins across 4 games
Troy, Southern Miss, UConn, Coastal Carolina
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Arrington Maiden vs Davi Belfort
battle (Memphis transfer vs UCF transfer) limited sample
Maiden from Memphis; Belfort from UCF; Camden Coleman (13-1 at Richmond) and JC Evans also in mix; transition year
Kevin Roberts (DT, from West Florida (D2))
18 TFLs at 291 lbs; serious havoc against D2 competition; potential gem for Napier
Nick Herman (RB, from Drake (FCS))
1034 rush yds 7.2 ypc as freshman; fills Wayne Knight's huge shoes; young with star potential
Record 2025 · 12-2
9-0 in Sun Belt; 42-0 run vs ODU after trailing 27-21; rolled to division and conference titles
Napier Louisiana · 34-5
Napier went 34-5 at Louisiana 2019-21 peaking at 23rd in SP+; 2 Sun Belt titles; now at most well-resourced Sun Belt program
Returners 300Snaps · 4
27 Dukes took 300+ snaps last fall only 4 return: Greenberg Wisloski Thomas Weathersby
Sos Rank · 132
JMU slate ranks 132nd in SOS; easiest in FBS; transition year helped by cupcake schedule
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Sept. 26 | JMU at ODU | Defending champ visits biggest 2025 challenger; tone setter for East division; first conference game for both |
| Oct. 3 | Marshall at JMU | Other potential East favorite visits Harrisonburg; Napier won't have time to figure out roster |
| Oct. 29 | Troy at JMU | Title game rematch; Troy scared JMU for 4 full quarters last year; JMU as hinge team |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Madison | #77 | -2.1 | #76 | #75 | 30% | #136 |
| 2 | Old Dominion | #88 | -5.8 | #109 | #63 | 40% | #114 |
| 3 | Troy | #90 | -6.0 | #90 | #94 | 39% | #119 |
| 4 | Marshall | #92 | -6.4 | #54 | #124 | 48% | #88 |
| 5 | Louisiana Tech | #100 | -8.3 | #98 | #99 | 56% | #53 |
| 6 | Arkansas State | #101 | -8.5 | #88 | #111 | 49% | #82 |
| 7 | Georgia Southern | #103 | -8.9 | #92 | #109 | 43% | #108 |
| 8 | Louisiana | #104 | -9.1 | #72 | #116 | 49% | #81 |
| 9 | App State | #111 | -12.1 | #102 | #115 | 34% | #127 |
| 10 | South Alabama | #116 | -13.3 | #95 | #125 | 44% | #105 |
| 11 | Coastal Carolina | #119 | -13.8 | #103 | #118 | 42% | #112 |
| 12 | Southern Miss | #131 | -23.3 | #123 | #133 | 22% | #138 |
| 13 | UL Monroe | #132 | -24.3 | #130 | #130 | 51% | #68 |
| 14 | Georgia State | #133 | -25.1 | #120 | #137 | 38% | #121 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.