A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Kansas Jayhawks enters 2026 rated 12th in the Big 12 (#57 nationally). The profile is a middling defense (#70) paired with an above average offense (#51). Schedule math puts the season at 5.6 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 5.8. 5 games project as clear underdog spots (Missouri, Utah, Kansas State, TCU, BYU). The season turns on 5 close games: Arizona State, Baylor, UCF, West Virginia, Oklahoma State.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 5-7 | 3-6 | #59 | #48 | #76 | #9 |
Lance Leipold — year 6, 27-35 career.
OC: Andy Kotelnicki (returned)
DC: D.K. McDonald
Kotelnicki returns; had top-30 offense in last 2 KU seasons; Leipold lost 9 of 11 one-score games
58% overall, ranked #39 nationally.
Offense 49% · Defense 67%
89 returning starts, 14 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs Long Island University | FCS | +31.2 | 98% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Missouri | #20 / +14.8 | -8.6 | 25% | Upset needed |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Arizona State neutral | #42 / +6.4 | -2.7 | 42% | Lean loss |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs Middle Tennessee | #135 / -26.0 | +32.2 | 98% | Should win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ Utah | #25 / +11.9 | -10.7 | 21% | Upset needed |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | @ Kansas State | #29 / +10.4 | -9.2 | 24% | Upset needed |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | vs Baylor | #51 / +4.5 | +1.7 | 55% | Swing |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | @ TCU | #34 / +9.1 | -7.9 | 27% | Upset needed |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs UCF | #60 / +2.3 | +3.9 | 62% | Swing |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ West Virginia | #66 / +0.8 | +0.4 | 51% | Swing |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs BYU | #18 / +15.5 | -9.3 | 24% | Upset needed |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ Oklahoma State | #38 / +7.1 | -5.9 | 32% | Lean loss |
2.63
expected wins across 4 games
Long Island University, Missouri, Arizona State, Middle Tennessee
1.27
expected wins across 4 games
Utah, Kansas State, Baylor, TCU
1.69
expected wins across 4 games
UCF, West Virginia, BYU, Oklahoma State
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Cole Ballard vs Chase Jenkins
battle (junior vs Rice transfer) limited sample
Ballard dual-threat potential; Jenkins excellent runner not passer; replacing Jalon Daniels era
One Score Record · 2-9
Lost 9 of 11 one-score finishes; 2 back-to-back 5-7 despite top-60 SP+
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Tech | #7 | +23.1 | #8 | #11 | 65% | #12 |
| 2 | BYU | #18 | +15.5 | #16 | #20 | 64% | #18 |
| 3 | Utah | #25 | +11.9 | #18 | #34 | 55% | #54 |
| 4 | Kansas State | #29 | +10.4 | #17 | #49 | 58% | #38 |
| 5 | Arizona | #30 | +10.2 | #29 | #33 | 60% | #32 |
| 6 | TCU | #34 | +9.1 | #31 | #40 | 51% | #69 |
| 7 | Houston | #36 | +8.2 | #30 | #45 | 65% | #17 |
| 8 | Oklahoma State | #38 | +7.1 | #42 | #52 | 58% | #42 |
| 9 | Arizona State | #42 | +6.4 | #57 | #37 | 51% | #71 |
| 10 | Cincinnati | #50 | +4.5 | #46 | #65 | 57% | #50 |
| 11 | Baylor | #51 | +4.5 | #23 | #87 | 53% | #61 |
| 12 | Kansas | #57 | +3.7 | #51 | #70 | 58% | #39 |
| 13 | UCF | #60 | +2.3 | #79 | #41 | 61% | #29 |
| 14 | Iowa State | #64 | +1.0 | #94 | #42 | 45% | #102 |
| 15 | Colorado | #65 | +0.9 | #64 | #57 | 55% | #55 |
| 16 | West Virginia | #66 | +0.8 | #62 | #66 | 52% | #66 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.