A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Kansas State Wildcats enters 2026 rated 4th in the Big 12 (#29 nationally). The profile is an above average defense (#49) paired with a strong offense (#17). Schedule math puts the season at 8.5 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 8.2. The season turns on 4 close games: Cincinnati, Arizona State, TCU, Arizona.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 6-6 | 5-4 | #42 | #46 | #58 | #49 |
Collin Klein — year 1, N/A (new hire) career.
OC: returning (Klein playcaller)
DC: Jordan Peterson (NEW)
Klein returns as HC after Klieman retired; was K-State OC then A&M with Elko; Peterson from A&M co-DC
58% overall, ranked #38 nationally.
Offense 65% · Defense 51%
94 returning starts, 16 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs Nicholls | FCS | +37.9 | 99% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Washington State | #85 / -5.3 | +18.2 | 91% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Tulane | #87 / -5.5 | +18.4 | 91% | Should win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ Cincinnati | #50 / +4.5 | +3.4 | 60% | Swing |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs Houston | #36 / +8.2 | +4.7 | 64% | Lean win |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Kansas | #57 / +3.7 | +9.2 | 76% | Lean win |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ Arizona State | #42 / +6.4 | +1.5 | 55% | Swing |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | @ Colorado | #65 / +0.9 | +7.0 | 71% | Lean win |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs Oklahoma State | #38 / +7.1 | +5.8 | 67% | Lean win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ TCU | #34 / +9.1 | -1.2 | 46% | Swing |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs Arizona | #30 / +10.2 | +2.7 | 58% | Swing |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ Iowa State | #64 / +1.0 | +6.9 | 70% | Lean win |
3.41
expected wins across 4 games
Nicholls, Washington State, Tulane, Cincinnati
2.65
expected wins across 4 games
Houston, Kansas, Arizona State, Colorado
2.42
expected wins across 4 games
Oklahoma State, TCU, Arizona, Iowa State
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Avery Johnson
returning starter experienced
Alternated between athleticism and NFL pocket passer mode; Klein (human 3rd-down conversion) should help
Wendell Gregory (DE, from Oklahoma State)
15.5 TFLs 19 run stops 4 sacks as redshirt freshman on worst-in-generation OSU team
Mekhi Mason (LB, from Louisiana Tech)
15 TFLs 24 run stops; complements Gregory and Elijah Hill in disruptive front six
Klein Return
Klein led K-State to 2nd Big 12 title as QB; OC for 3rd title; went to A&M with Elko
One Score Record · 2-5
Went 2-5 in one-score finishes in 2025; began 17th in AP poll
Def Rank Slump · 2015
Slumped to 58th in defensive SP+; worst since 2015
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Tech | #7 | +23.1 | #8 | #11 | 65% | #12 |
| 2 | BYU | #18 | +15.5 | #16 | #20 | 64% | #18 |
| 3 | Utah | #25 | +11.9 | #18 | #34 | 55% | #54 |
| 4 | Kansas State | #29 | +10.4 | #17 | #49 | 58% | #38 |
| 5 | Arizona | #30 | +10.2 | #29 | #33 | 60% | #32 |
| 6 | TCU | #34 | +9.1 | #31 | #40 | 51% | #69 |
| 7 | Houston | #36 | +8.2 | #30 | #45 | 65% | #17 |
| 8 | Oklahoma State | #38 | +7.1 | #42 | #52 | 58% | #42 |
| 9 | Arizona State | #42 | +6.4 | #57 | #37 | 51% | #71 |
| 10 | Cincinnati | #50 | +4.5 | #46 | #65 | 57% | #50 |
| 11 | Baylor | #51 | +4.5 | #23 | #87 | 53% | #61 |
| 12 | Kansas | #57 | +3.7 | #51 | #70 | 58% | #39 |
| 13 | UCF | #60 | +2.3 | #79 | #41 | 61% | #29 |
| 14 | Iowa State | #64 | +1.0 | #94 | #42 | 45% | #102 |
| 15 | Colorado | #65 | +0.9 | #64 | #57 | 55% | #55 |
| 16 | West Virginia | #66 | +0.8 | #62 | #66 | 52% | #66 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.