A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Kennesaw State Owls enters 2026 rated 4th in the Conference USA (#105 nationally). The profile is a below average defense (#97) paired with a below average offense (#101). Schedule math puts the season at 7.4 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 7.1. 1 game project as clear underdog spots (Tennessee). The season turns on 4 close games: Arkansas State, Jacksonville State, Liberty, Western Kentucky.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 10-4 | 8-1 | #89 | #72 | #93 | #125 |
Jerry Mack — year 2, 10-4 career.
OC: Mitch Militello
DC: returning
Mack loved hire from NC Central; exceeded all expectations; offense leaped 134th to 72nd; Militello polished Odom and must polish Collins
49% overall, ranked #83 nationally.
Offense 42% · Defense 55%
96 returning starts, 10 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-03 | vs West Georgia | FCS | +18.2 | 91% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Georgia State | #133 / -25.1 | +18.3 | 91% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | @ Tennessee | #15 / +16.0 | -27.8 | 3% | Upset needed |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ Arkansas State | #101 / -8.5 | -3.3 | 40% | Lean loss |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-07 | vs Jacksonville State | #98 / -7.7 | +0.9 | 53% | Swing |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-14 | @ Missouri State | #126 / -18.7 | +6.9 | 70% | Lean win |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-22 | vs Liberty | #93 / -6.4 | -0.4 | 49% | Swing |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-28 | @ Middle Tennessee | #135 / -26.0 | +14.2 | 86% | Should win |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs Delaware | #114 / -13.0 | +6.2 | 68% | Lean win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ Sam Houston | #136 / -26.3 | +14.5 | 86% | Should win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs Florida International | #118 / -13.7 | +6.9 | 70% | Lean win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ Western Kentucky | #86 / -5.3 | -6.5 | 31% | Lean loss |
2.24
expected wins across 4 games
West Georgia, Georgia State, Tennessee, Arkansas State
2.57
expected wins across 4 games
Jacksonville State, Missouri State, Liberty, Middle Tennessee
2.56
expected wins across 4 games
Delaware, Sam Houston, Florida International, Western Kentucky
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Rickie Collins
transfer (LSU/Syracuse) limited sample
Former blue-chipper; abject disaster in relief at Syracuse; 5.0 yds per dropback 6 TD 10 INT; Militello must polish him like Odom
Josiah Chenault (OL, from Kennesaw State)
First-team All-CUSA at Kennesaw State; known CUSA commodity; Phil Longo needed great haul after face-plant
Offense Jump · 134_to_72
Leaped from 134th to 72nd in offensive SP+; stable run game plus explosive downfield passing; 3 all-conf OL performers
Record Flip · 10L_to_10W
Went from 10 losses to 10 wins in first year under Mack; Odom became dynamite dual-threat 2594 pass 479 rush
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 7 | Jax State at Kennesaw St. | 2025 title game rematch on Wednesday night; Owls and Hilltoppers are hinge teams; each makes 3 appearances on this list |
| Oct. 21 | Liberty at Kennesaw St. | Wednesday night; Liberty's 3rd road tossup in 4 games after Coastal and Delaware; schedule conducive to rebound but this is pivotal |
| Nov. 28 | Kennesaw St. at WKU | Hinge team vs hinge team possibly with title game berth on the line; Wednesday night weeknight CUSA football |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Kentucky | #86 | -5.3 | #73 | #101 | 32% | #133 |
| 2 | Liberty | #93 | -6.4 | #66 | #104 | 57% | #49 |
| 3 | Jacksonville State | #98 | -7.7 | #77 | #107 | 57% | #47 |
| 4 | Kennesaw State | #105 | -9.3 | #101 | #97 | 49% | #83 |
| 5 | Delaware | #114 | -13.0 | #96 | #126 | 62% | #25 |
| 6 | Florida International | #118 | -13.7 | #100 | #122 | 47% | #95 |
| 7 | New Mexico State | #123 | -16.4 | #118 | #113 | 51% | #73 |
| 8 | Missouri State | #126 | -18.7 | #122 | #121 | 34% | #128 |
| 9 | Middle Tennessee | #135 | -26.0 | #133 | #134 | 36% | #122 |
| 10 | Sam Houston | #136 | -26.3 | #131 | #135 | 49% | #80 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.