A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Kent State Golden Flashes enters 2026 rated 10th in the MAC (#128 nationally). The profile is a poor defense (#127) paired with a poor offense (#125). Schedule math puts the season at 3.8 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 3.9. 7 games project as clear underdog spots (South Carolina, Ohio State, Western Michigan, South Florida, Bowling Green, Miami (OH), Eastern Michigan). The season turns on 3 close games: Ohio, Akron, Sacramento State.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 5-7 | 4-4 | #130 | #125 | #120 | #119 |
Mark Carney — year 2, 5-7 career.
OC: returning (Carney playcaller)
DC: returning
Interim then full-time; engineered 1-23 to 5-7 miracle; no hope vs top-50 (0-4 avg 54.3-8.5) but won 5 of 8 otherwise
48% overall, ranked #87 nationally.
Offense 57% · Defense 39%
93 returning starts, 18 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | @ South Carolina | #24 / +12.1 | -34.7 | 1% | Upset needed |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Wofford | FCS | +7.4 | 72% | Lean win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | @ Ohio State | #1 / +31.8 | -54.4 | 0% | Upset needed |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs Ball State | #134 / -25.2 | +7.6 | 72% | Lean win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs Ohio | #117 / -13.6 | -4.0 | 38% | Lean loss |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ Western Michigan | #95 / -7.2 | -15.4 | 13% | Upset needed |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | @ South Florida | #80 / -2.8 | -19.8 | 8% | Upset needed |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | vs Akron | #127 / -19.5 | +1.9 | 56% | Swing |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | @ Sacramento State | #130 / -22.7 | +0.1 | 50% | Swing |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-10 | @ Bowling Green | #115 / -13.3 | -9.3 | 24% | Upset needed |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-17 | vs Miami (OH) | #81 / -2.9 | -14.7 | 14% | Upset needed |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-24 | @ Eastern Michigan | #121 / -15.0 | -7.6 | 28% | Upset needed |
1.45
expected wins across 4 games
South Carolina, Wofford, Ohio State, Ball State
1.14
expected wins across 4 games
Ohio, Western Michigan, South Florida, Akron
1.16
expected wins across 4 games
Sacramento State, Bowling Green, Miami (OH), Eastern Michigan
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Dru DeShields
returning starter limited sample
Returns with 3 starting OL and possession man Harris; magical Da'Realyst Clark returns (2 KR TDs and 89-yd rec); but 4 of 5 wins by TD or less
Lewis Aftermath · 1-23
Sean Lewis left for Colorado; 1-23 under Burns (fired code-of-conduct suing); Carney engineered 5-7 miracle from 1-23
Clark Magic · 2
Da'Realyst Clark: 2 KR TDs among 16 returns and 1 of 3 catches was 89-yd score; magical player returns
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami (OH) | #81 | -2.9 | #111 | #48 | 49% | #84 |
| 2 | Western Michigan | #95 | -7.2 | #112 | #68 | 51% | #72 |
| 3 | Toledo | #108 | -11.5 | #121 | #84 | 33% | #130 |
| 4 | Buffalo | #110 | -11.9 | #126 | #85 | 30% | #135 |
| 5 | Central Michigan | #113 | -12.4 | #116 | #92 | 46% | #100 |
| 6 | Bowling Green | #115 | -13.3 | #128 | #88 | 35% | #124 |
| 7 | Ohio | #117 | -13.6 | #134 | #72 | 33% | #129 |
| 8 | Eastern Michigan | #121 | -15.0 | #115 | #112 | 62% | #24 |
| 9 | Akron | #127 | -19.5 | #135 | #106 | 40% | #115 |
| 10 | Kent State | #128 | -20.1 | #125 | #127 | 48% | #87 |
| 11 | Sacramento State | #130 | -22.7 | #127 | #131 | 32% | #131 |
| 12 | Ball State | #134 | -25.2 | #136 | #128 | 36% | #123 |
| 13 | Massachusetts | #137 | -30.9 | #138 | #136 | 46% | #96 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.