A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Liberty Flames enters 2026 rated 2nd in the Conference USA (#93 nationally). The profile is a below average defense (#104) paired with a middling offense (#66). Schedule math puts the season at 8.6 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 8.3. 1 game project as clear underdog spots (James Madison). The season turns on 2 close games: Kennesaw State, Western Kentucky.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 4-8 | 3-5 | #102 | #88 | #104 | #86 |
Jamey Chadwell — year 4, 25-13 career.
OC: Newland Isaac (promoted)
DC: Shawn Quinn (NEW)
Chadwell back after medical leave; surgery in offseason; Isaac promoted from RBs; Quinn from Virginia Tech
57% overall, ranked #49 nationally.
Offense 64% · Defense 50%
105 returning starts, 12 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | @ James Madison | #77 / -2.1 | -6.8 | 30% | Upset needed |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Gardner-Webb | FCS | +21.1 | 93% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Ball State | #134 / -25.2 | +21.3 | 93% | Should win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-24 | @ Coastal Carolina | #119 / -13.8 | +4.9 | 65% | Lean win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-02 | @ Delaware | #114 / -13.0 | +4.1 | 63% | Lean win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-08 | vs Sam Houston | #136 / -26.3 | +22.4 | 94% | Should win |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-22 | @ Kennesaw State | #105 / -9.3 | +0.4 | 51% | Swing |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs Florida International | #118 / -13.7 | +9.8 | 77% | Lean win |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | @ New Mexico State | #123 / -16.4 | +7.5 | 72% | Lean win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs Middle Tennessee | #135 / -26.0 | +22.1 | 94% | Should win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs Western Kentucky | #86 / -5.3 | +1.4 | 54% | Swing |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ Missouri State | #126 / -18.7 | +9.8 | 77% | Lean win |
2.82
expected wins across 4 games
James Madison, Gardner-Webb, Ball State, Coastal Carolina
2.85
expected wins across 4 games
Delaware, Sam Houston, Kennesaw State, Florida International
2.98
expected wins across 4 games
New Mexico State, Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky, Missouri State
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Ethan Vasko vs Deshawn Purdie
battle (returner vs Wake Forest transfer) experienced vs limited sample
Vasko out after surgery; Purdie had particularly good spring; Henderson (WVU) also in mix
Kam Davis (RB, from Florida State)
Former top-100 prospect; 7 double-digit runs among 65 touches; catches of 14 and 32 yds; explosiveness potential for Chadwell
Record 2025 · 4-8
First losing record since joining FBS; Chadwell medical condition; 4 straight one-score losses; offense fell 60th to 88th defense 70th to 104th
Fbs Streak · 2018
Won 8+ games every year since 2018 before 2025 stumble; spending advantages over most CUSA peers; Chadwell back after surgery
Schedule
After Week 1 trip to JMU at least slight projected favorites in every remaining game; schedule conducive to rebound
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 21 | Liberty at Kennesaw St. | Wednesday night; Liberty's 3rd road tossup in 4 games after Coastal and Delaware; schedule conducive to rebound but this is pivotal |
| Nov. 21 | WKU at Liberty | Liberty is hurdle that really good WKU teams failed to clear; losing this late might be awfully costly |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Kentucky | #86 | -5.3 | #73 | #101 | 32% | #133 |
| 2 | Liberty | #93 | -6.4 | #66 | #104 | 57% | #49 |
| 3 | Jacksonville State | #98 | -7.7 | #77 | #107 | 57% | #47 |
| 4 | Kennesaw State | #105 | -9.3 | #101 | #97 | 49% | #83 |
| 5 | Delaware | #114 | -13.0 | #96 | #126 | 62% | #25 |
| 6 | Florida International | #118 | -13.7 | #100 | #122 | 47% | #95 |
| 7 | New Mexico State | #123 | -16.4 | #118 | #113 | 51% | #73 |
| 8 | Missouri State | #126 | -18.7 | #122 | #121 | 34% | #128 |
| 9 | Middle Tennessee | #135 | -26.0 | #133 | #134 | 36% | #122 |
| 10 | Sam Houston | #136 | -26.3 | #131 | #135 | 49% | #80 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.