A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns enters 2026 rated 8th in the Sun Belt (#104 nationally). The profile is a poor defense (#116) paired with a middling offense (#72). Schedule math puts the season at 8.0 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 7.7. 1 game project as clear underdog spots (USC). The season turns on 3 close games: Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech, Troy.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 6-7 | 5-3 | #105 | #84 | #113 | #113 |
Michael Desormeaux — year 5, 29-25 career.
OC: returning
DC: Jim Salgado (Year 3)
Desormeaux doubled down on pipeline; only 5 transfers; Salgado 3rd year DC; offense fell 39th to 84th last year
49% overall, ranked #81 nationally.
Offense 63% · Defense 35%
117 returning starts, 18 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-06 | vs Lamar | FCS | +18.4 | 91% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-13 | @ USC | #13 / +16.8 | -28.4 | 3% | Upset needed |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-20 | vs UAB | #124 / -18.1 | +11.5 | 81% | Should win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ Charlotte | #138 / -32.4 | +20.8 | 93% | Should win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs Arkansas State | #101 / -8.5 | +1.9 | 56% | Swing |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ Louisiana Tech | #100 / -8.3 | -3.3 | 40% | Lean loss |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Troy | #90 / -6.0 | -0.6 | 48% | Swing |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ Southern Miss | #131 / -23.3 | +11.7 | 81% | Should win |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs South Alabama | #116 / -13.3 | +6.7 | 70% | Lean win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-13 | @ UL Monroe | #132 / -24.3 | +12.7 | 83% | Should win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs Coastal Carolina | #119 / -13.8 | +7.2 | 71% | Lean win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ Georgia State | #133 / -25.1 | +13.5 | 84% | Should win |
2.68
expected wins across 4 games
Lamar, USC, UAB, Charlotte
2.25
expected wins across 4 games
Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech, Troy, Southern Miss
3.08
expected wins across 4 games
South Alabama, UL Monroe, Coastal Carolina, Georgia State
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Lunch Winfield
returning starter limited sample
Inconsistent but tremendous peaks: 14/15 232 yds 2 TD vs S Alabama; 15 carries 131 yds 2 TD vs Ark St; building offense around dual-threat
Off Def Drop · 39_to_84
Offense fell 39th to 84th; defense 78th to 113th; special teams 37th to 113th; Howard transfer bust; only Sampson hit
Winfield Peaks
14/15 232 yds 2 TD vs USA; 15 carries 131 yds 2 TD vs Ark St; building around dual-threat plus Sampson bombs
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Madison | #77 | -2.1 | #76 | #75 | 30% | #136 |
| 2 | Old Dominion | #88 | -5.8 | #109 | #63 | 40% | #114 |
| 3 | Troy | #90 | -6.0 | #90 | #94 | 39% | #119 |
| 4 | Marshall | #92 | -6.4 | #54 | #124 | 48% | #88 |
| 5 | Louisiana Tech | #100 | -8.3 | #98 | #99 | 56% | #53 |
| 6 | Arkansas State | #101 | -8.5 | #88 | #111 | 49% | #82 |
| 7 | Georgia Southern | #103 | -8.9 | #92 | #109 | 43% | #108 |
| 8 | Louisiana | #104 | -9.1 | #72 | #116 | 49% | #81 |
| 9 | App State | #111 | -12.1 | #102 | #115 | 34% | #127 |
| 10 | South Alabama | #116 | -13.3 | #95 | #125 | 44% | #105 |
| 11 | Coastal Carolina | #119 | -13.8 | #103 | #118 | 42% | #112 |
| 12 | Southern Miss | #131 | -23.3 | #123 | #133 | 22% | #138 |
| 13 | UL Monroe | #132 | -24.3 | #130 | #130 | 51% | #68 |
| 14 | Georgia State | #133 | -25.1 | #120 | #137 | 38% | #121 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.