A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs enters 2026 rated 5th in the Sun Belt (#100 nationally). The profile is a below average defense (#99) paired with a below average offense (#98). Schedule math puts the season at 6.3 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 6.4. 2 games project as clear underdog spots (LSU, Baylor). The season turns on 7 close games: Army, Louisiana, Old Dominion, South Alabama, Troy, Arkansas State, Georgia Southern.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
Sonny Cumbie — year 5, 19-31 career.
OC: Nathan Young (NEW)
DC: Luke Olson (Year 2)
Olson came from Jax State sustained 2024 gains; 2nd consecutive strong DC hire; Young new OC; first time both units thrived
56% overall, ranked #53 nationally.
Offense 64% · Defense 48%
123 returning starts, 6 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs Northwestern State | FCS | +19.2 | 92% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | @ LSU | #10 / +20.2 | -31.0 | 2% | Upset needed |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | @ Baylor | #51 / +4.5 | -15.3 | 13% | Upset needed |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs Army | #83 / -3.0 | -2.8 | 41% | Lean loss |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs Louisiana | #104 / -9.1 | +3.3 | 60% | Swing |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | @ UL Monroe | #132 / -24.3 | +13.5 | 84% | Should win |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | vs Old Dominion | #88 / -5.8 | -0.0 | 50% | Swing |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | @ South Alabama | #116 / -13.3 | +2.5 | 58% | Swing |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | @ Troy | #90 / -6.0 | -4.8 | 35% | Lean loss |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs Southern Miss | #131 / -23.3 | +17.5 | 90% | Should win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-19 | vs Arkansas State | #101 / -8.5 | +2.7 | 58% | Swing |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ Georgia Southern | #103 / -8.9 | -1.9 | 44% | Lean loss |
1.48
expected wins across 4 games
Northwestern State, LSU, Baylor, Army
2.52
expected wins across 4 games
Louisiana, UL Monroe, Old Dominion, South Alabama
2.28
expected wins across 4 games
Troy, Southern Miss, Arkansas State, Georgia Southern
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Blake Baker
returning starter experienced
Stellar before ACL tear; Kukuk led 3 straight wins as runner; Baker should be ready for fall; sure-handed TE Finley back
Cusa Exit
Paid premium to leave CUSA early for Sun Belt; first time with La Tech La and ULM in same conference
Def Stuff Rate · 38.0
Stopped 38.0% of plays for zero or fewer yards (6th in FBS); forced 25 turnovers (9th); 48.7% red zone TD (11th)
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Nov. 7 | Troy at La. Tech | West game; could set stakes for home stretch; Tech mounting title push in Sun Belt debut? Troy repeat? |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Madison | #77 | -2.1 | #76 | #75 | 30% | #136 |
| 2 | Old Dominion | #88 | -5.8 | #109 | #63 | 40% | #114 |
| 3 | Troy | #90 | -6.0 | #90 | #94 | 39% | #119 |
| 4 | Marshall | #92 | -6.4 | #54 | #124 | 48% | #88 |
| 5 | Louisiana Tech | #100 | -8.3 | #98 | #99 | 56% | #53 |
| 6 | Arkansas State | #101 | -8.5 | #88 | #111 | 49% | #82 |
| 7 | Georgia Southern | #103 | -8.9 | #92 | #109 | 43% | #108 |
| 8 | Louisiana | #104 | -9.1 | #72 | #116 | 49% | #81 |
| 9 | App State | #111 | -12.1 | #102 | #115 | 34% | #127 |
| 10 | South Alabama | #116 | -13.3 | #95 | #125 | 44% | #105 |
| 11 | Coastal Carolina | #119 | -13.8 | #103 | #118 | 42% | #112 |
| 12 | Southern Miss | #131 | -23.3 | #123 | #133 | 22% | #138 |
| 13 | UL Monroe | #132 | -24.3 | #130 | #130 | 51% | #68 |
| 14 | Georgia State | #133 | -25.1 | #120 | #137 | 38% | #121 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.