A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Maryland Terrapins enters 2026 rated 14th in the Big Ten (#55 nationally). The profile is an above average defense (#43) paired with a middling offense (#65). Schedule math puts the season at 5.8 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 5.8. 3 games project as clear underdog spots (Ohio State, USC, Penn State). The season turns on 4 close games: Virginia Tech, UCLA, Nebraska, Illinois.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 4-8 | 1-8 | #75 | #91 | #56 | #39 |
Mike Locksley — year 8, 37-49 career.
OC: Clint Trickett (NEW)
DC: Ted Monachino
Trickett from Marshall/JSU OC; Holgorsen tree; crafted fantastic run game at JSU; Monachino improved D from 74th to 56th
71% overall, ranked #2 nationally.
Offense 68% · Defense 74%
163 returning starts, 10 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-06 | vs Hampton | FCS | +31.3 | 98% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | @ UConn | #107 / -11.2 | +12.5 | 83% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Virginia Tech | #32 / +9.4 | -3.1 | 40% | Lean loss |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs UCLA | #46 / +5.1 | +1.2 | 54% | Swing |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ Nebraska | #37 / +7.7 | -6.4 | 31% | Lean loss |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ Ohio State | #1 / +31.8 | -30.5 | 2% | Upset needed |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Rutgers | #62 / +1.8 | +4.5 | 64% | Lean win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs Illinois | #33 / +9.3 | -3.0 | 41% | Lean loss |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | @ Purdue | #82 / -2.9 | +4.2 | 63% | Lean win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs Wisconsin | #61 / +1.8 | +4.5 | 64% | Lean win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ USC | #13 / +16.8 | -15.5 | 13% | Upset needed |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs Penn State | #17 / +15.7 | -9.4 | 24% | Upset needed |
2.75
expected wins across 4 games
Hampton, UConn, Virginia Tech, UCLA
1.38
expected wins across 4 games
Nebraska, Ohio State, Rutgers, Illinois
1.63
expected wins across 4 games
Purdue, Wisconsin, USC, Penn State
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Malik Washington
returning starter limited sample
True freshman in 2025; 57.6 QBR 15th of 17 B1G QBs; brilliant at sack avoidance; 100 mph fastballs at short range; 15th in catchable ball rate
Washington Qbr · 57.6
57.6 QBR 15th of 17 B1G QBs; 40.8% success rate 16th; 57.7% comp rate 17th; but best sack avoidance
Returning Prod Rank · 2
Second nationally in returning production; 71% overall; gamble on youth paying off
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | #1 | +31.8 | #2 | #1 | 60% | #31 |
| 2 | Oregon | #2 | +28.3 | #1 | #3 | 66% | #12 |
| 3 | Indiana | #5 | +24.5 | #9 | #6 | 56% | #52 |
| 4 | USC | #13 | +16.8 | #6 | #29 | 65% | #14 |
| 5 | Michigan | #14 | +16.1 | #20 | #13 | 63% | #20 |
| 6 | Penn State | #17 | +15.7 | #14 | #23 | 52% | #67 |
| 7 | Washington | #21 | +14.5 | #22 | #19 | 65% | #16 |
| 8 | Iowa | #22 | +13.6 | #38 | #17 | 44% | #104 |
| 9 | Illinois | #33 | +9.3 | #28 | #44 | 50% | #76 |
| 10 | Nebraska | #37 | +7.7 | #49 | #39 | 69% | #3 |
| 11 | Minnesota | #45 | +5.2 | #71 | #24 | 68% | #8 |
| 12 | UCLA | #46 | +5.1 | #52 | #54 | 67% | #10 |
| 13 | Northwestern | #49 | +4.6 | #78 | #28 | 57% | #44 |
| 14 | Maryland | #55 | +3.8 | #65 | #43 | 71% | #2 |
| 15 | Wisconsin | #61 | +1.8 | #106 | #22 | 59% | #35 |
| 16 | Rutgers | #62 | +1.8 | #37 | #90 | 47% | #92 |
| 17 | Michigan State | #67 | +0.4 | #61 | #69 | 46% | #97 |
| 18 | Purdue | #82 | -2.9 | #86 | #79 | 58% | #40 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.