A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Massachusetts Minutemen enters 2026 rated 13th in the MAC (#137 nationally). The profile is a poor defense (#136) paired with a poor offense (#138). Schedule math puts the season at 2.1 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 2.9. 9 games project as clear underdog spots (Rutgers, Sacramento State, Eastern Michigan, Miami (OH), Buffalo, UConn, Toledo, Akron, Bowling Green). The season turns on 3 close games: Sacred Heart, Stonehill, Ball State.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 0-12 | 0-8 | #136 | #136 | #136 | #122 |
Joe Harasymiak — year 2, 0-12 career.
OC: returning
DC: returning
Schiano disciple; game plans solid (led after Q1 3 times); 0-12 136th dead last; easiest schedule in FBS in 2026
46% overall, ranked #96 nationally.
Offense 49% · Defense 43%
89 returning starts, 8 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-03 | @ Rutgers | #62 / +1.8 | -35.2 | 1% | Upset needed |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Sacred Heart | FCS | -3.4 | 40% | Lean loss |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Stonehill | FCS | -3.4 | 40% | Lean loss |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ Sacramento State | #130 / -22.7 | -10.7 | 21% | Upset needed |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs Eastern Michigan | #121 / -15.0 | -13.4 | 16% | Upset needed |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs Miami (OH) | #81 / -2.9 | -25.5 | 4% | Upset needed |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | @ Buffalo | #110 / -11.9 | -21.5 | 6% | Upset needed |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-23 | @ UConn | #107 / -11.2 | -22.2 | 6% | Upset needed |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-04 | vs Ball State | #134 / -25.2 | -3.2 | 40% | Lean loss |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-11 | @ Toledo | #108 / -11.5 | -21.9 | 6% | Upset needed |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-18 | vs Akron | #127 / -19.5 | -8.9 | 25% | Upset needed |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ Bowling Green | #115 / -13.3 | -20.1 | 8% | Upset needed |
1.01
expected wins across 4 games
Rutgers, Sacred Heart, Stonehill, Sacramento State
0.32
expected wins across 4 games
Eastern Michigan, Miami (OH), Buffalo, UConn
0.79
expected wins across 4 games
Ball State, Toledo, Akron, Bowling Green
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
William Watson III vs RJ Johnson III
battle (Vaugh Tech reserve vs FAMU FCS star) limited sample
Watson former VT reserve; Johnson 2500-yd passer at Florida A&M; Harasymiak identity; easiest schedule in FBS
Solid Foundations
Avoided mistakes: 62nd in turnovers 23rd in penalty yds; physical run/pass to TEs; led Q1 3x halftime 2x; game plans solid but no talent; 136th dead last
Schedule 2026 · 136
Easiest schedule in FBS; 2 FCS opponents plus 8 projected 108th or worse; should win some games
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami (OH) | #81 | -2.9 | #111 | #48 | 49% | #84 |
| 2 | Western Michigan | #95 | -7.2 | #112 | #68 | 51% | #72 |
| 3 | Toledo | #108 | -11.5 | #121 | #84 | 33% | #130 |
| 4 | Buffalo | #110 | -11.9 | #126 | #85 | 30% | #135 |
| 5 | Central Michigan | #113 | -12.4 | #116 | #92 | 46% | #100 |
| 6 | Bowling Green | #115 | -13.3 | #128 | #88 | 35% | #124 |
| 7 | Ohio | #117 | -13.6 | #134 | #72 | 33% | #129 |
| 8 | Eastern Michigan | #121 | -15.0 | #115 | #112 | 62% | #24 |
| 9 | Akron | #127 | -19.5 | #135 | #106 | 40% | #115 |
| 10 | Kent State | #128 | -20.1 | #125 | #127 | 48% | #87 |
| 11 | Sacramento State | #130 | -22.7 | #127 | #131 | 32% | #131 |
| 12 | Ball State | #134 | -25.2 | #136 | #128 | 36% | #123 |
| 13 | Massachusetts | #137 | -30.9 | #138 | #136 | 46% | #96 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.