A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Memphis Tigers enters 2026 rated 2nd in the American (#70 nationally). The profile is a below average defense (#95) paired with an above average offense (#56). Schedule math puts the season at 7.6 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 7.5. 1 game project as clear underdog spots (Boise State). The season turns on 5 close games: UNLV, Tulane, East Carolina, South Florida, Navy.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 8-5 | 4-4 | #39 | #21 | #75 | #18 |
Charles Huff — year 1, N/A (new hire) career.
OC: Kevin Decker (NEW)
DC: NEW
Huff won Sun Belt at Marshall 2024; flipped Southern Miss 1-11 to 7-6; brought 53 transfers 17 from Southern Miss; Decker from ODU explosive offense
42% overall, ranked #111 nationally.
Offense 44% · Defense 39%
23 returning starts, 14 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-08-30 | @ UNLV | #59 / +2.8 | -6.4 | 31% | Lean loss |
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs Arkansas State | #101 / -8.5 | +9.9 | 78% | Lean win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | @ Boise State | #39 / +6.8 | -10.4 | 21% | Upset needed |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs UT Martin | FCS | +26.4 | 96% | Should win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ Charlotte | #138 / -32.4 | +28.8 | 97% | Should win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs UAB | #124 / -18.1 | +19.5 | 92% | Should win |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-16 | @ Tulane | #87 / -5.5 | +1.9 | 56% | Swing |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-22 | vs East Carolina | #76 / -2.0 | +3.4 | 60% | Swing |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs Army | #83 / -3.0 | +4.4 | 63% | Lean win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-13 | @ South Florida | #80 / -2.8 | -0.8 | 48% | Swing |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ Navy | #63 / +1.1 | -4.7 | 36% | Lean loss |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-27 | vs Temple | #102 / -8.7 | +10.1 | 78% | Lean win |
2.26
expected wins across 4 games
UNLV, Arkansas State, Boise State, UT Martin
3.06
expected wins across 4 games
Charlotte, UAB, Tulane, East Carolina
2.25
expected wins across 4 games
Army, South Florida, Navy, Temple
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Air Noland vs Marcus Stokes
battle (blue-chipper vs D2 star) limited sample vs experienced
Noland: former top-60 prospect 3rd school in 3 years; Stokes: 3297 yds 30 TDs at West Florida D2; floor vs ceiling
J'Mond Tapp (DE, from Southern Miss)
13 TFLs for vastly improved Golden Eagles; most proven player on new Memphis defense
Marcus Stokes (QB, from West Florida (D2))
3297 pass yds 30 TDs at D2; proven smaller-school passer; battling Noland for starting job
Air Noland (QB, from Ohio State/South Carolina)
Former top-60 blue-chipper; 3rd school in 3 years; high ceiling option at QB
Win Avg · 8.9
Averaged 8.9 wins per year since 2014; one of steadiest G6 programs
Huff Caravan · 53
53 transfers including 17 from Southern Miss; Huff takes his guys wherever he goes; one of biggest roster flips in country
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 22 | East Carolina at Memphis | Memphis new HC Huff with almost completely new two-deep; home stance could stake title spot |
| Oct. 31 | Army at Memphis | Back half of Memphis home stand; Tigers could stake out top of standings by holding serve |
| Nov. 12 | Memphis at USF | Memphis is hinge team; if they held at home now must hold on road; determines who makes title game |
| Nov. 21 | Memphis at Navy | Memphis hinge team conclusion; either carves title game spot or determines who makes it in their absence |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navy | #63 | +1.1 | #58 | #77 | 47% | #93 |
| 2 | Memphis | #70 | -1.1 | #56 | #95 | 42% | #111 |
| 3 | UTSA | #73 | -1.5 | #47 | #102 | 54% | #57 |
| 4 | East Carolina | #76 | -2.0 | #84 | #71 | 42% | #110 |
| 5 | South Florida | #80 | -2.8 | #59 | #98 | 41% | #113 |
| 6 | Army | #83 | -3.0 | #81 | #82 | 50% | #75 |
| 7 | Tulane | #87 | -5.5 | #99 | #86 | 40% | #117 |
| 8 | Florida Atlantic | #94 | -7.1 | #60 | #120 | 64% | #19 |
| 9 | Tulsa | #96 | -7.6 | #91 | #103 | 62% | #23 |
| 10 | Temple | #102 | -8.7 | #74 | #117 | 53% | #64 |
| 11 | UConn | #107 | -11.2 | #107 | #108 | 31% | #134 |
| 12 | North Texas | #109 | -11.8 | #89 | #123 | 32% | #132 |
| 13 | Rice | #120 | -14.7 | #119 | #110 | 39% | #120 |
| 14 | UAB | #124 | -18.1 | #108 | #132 | 35% | #125 |
| 15 | Charlotte | #138 | -32.4 | #137 | #138 | 43% | #107 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.