A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Michigan State Spartans enters 2026 rated 17th in the Big Ten (#67 nationally). The profile is a middling defense (#69) paired with a middling offense (#61). Schedule math puts the season at 4.3 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 4.4. 5 games project as clear underdog spots (Notre Dame, UCLA, Michigan, Washington, Oregon). The season turns on 5 close games: Nebraska, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, Rutgers.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 4-8 | 1-8 | #83 | #70 | #82 | #103 |
Pat Fitzgerald — year 1, N/A (new hire) career.
OC: NEW
DC: NEW
Fitzgerald hired after 4-20 in last 2 years at Northwestern; massive risk; depth is major issue; multiple transfers needed
46% overall, ranked #97 nationally.
Offense 48% · Defense 45%
70 returning starts, 13 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs Toledo | #108 / -11.5 | +14.4 | 86% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Eastern Michigan | #121 / -15.0 | +17.9 | 90% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | @ Notre Dame | #3 / +25.8 | -27.9 | 3% | Upset needed |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs Nebraska | #37 / +7.7 | -4.8 | 35% | Lean loss |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ Wisconsin | #61 / +1.8 | -3.9 | 38% | Lean loss |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs Illinois | #33 / +9.3 | -6.4 | 31% | Lean loss |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Northwestern | #49 / +4.6 | -1.7 | 45% | Lean loss |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ UCLA | #46 / +5.1 | -7.2 | 29% | Upset needed |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | @ Michigan | #14 / +16.1 | -18.2 | 9% | Upset needed |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs Washington | #21 / +14.5 | -11.6 | 19% | Upset needed |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs Oregon | #2 / +28.3 | -25.4 | 4% | Upset needed |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ Rutgers | #62 / +1.8 | -3.9 | 38% | Lean loss |
2.15
expected wins across 4 games
Toledo, Eastern Michigan, Notre Dame, Nebraska
1.43
expected wins across 4 games
Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, UCLA
0.70
expected wins across 4 games
Michigan, Washington, Oregon, Rutgers
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Alessio Milivojevic
returning (sophomore) zero experience
Probably starts by default; 4-star freshman Coffman could push; no proven playmakers around him
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | #1 | +31.8 | #2 | #1 | 60% | #31 |
| 2 | Oregon | #2 | +28.3 | #1 | #3 | 66% | #12 |
| 3 | Indiana | #5 | +24.5 | #9 | #6 | 56% | #52 |
| 4 | USC | #13 | +16.8 | #6 | #29 | 65% | #14 |
| 5 | Michigan | #14 | +16.1 | #20 | #13 | 63% | #20 |
| 6 | Penn State | #17 | +15.7 | #14 | #23 | 52% | #67 |
| 7 | Washington | #21 | +14.5 | #22 | #19 | 65% | #16 |
| 8 | Iowa | #22 | +13.6 | #38 | #17 | 44% | #104 |
| 9 | Illinois | #33 | +9.3 | #28 | #44 | 50% | #76 |
| 10 | Nebraska | #37 | +7.7 | #49 | #39 | 69% | #3 |
| 11 | Minnesota | #45 | +5.2 | #71 | #24 | 68% | #8 |
| 12 | UCLA | #46 | +5.1 | #52 | #54 | 67% | #10 |
| 13 | Northwestern | #49 | +4.6 | #78 | #28 | 57% | #44 |
| 14 | Maryland | #55 | +3.8 | #65 | #43 | 71% | #2 |
| 15 | Wisconsin | #61 | +1.8 | #106 | #22 | 59% | #35 |
| 16 | Rutgers | #62 | +1.8 | #37 | #90 | 47% | #92 |
| 17 | Michigan State | #67 | +0.4 | #61 | #69 | 46% | #97 |
| 18 | Purdue | #82 | -2.9 | #86 | #79 | 58% | #40 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.