A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders enters 2026 rated 9th in the Conference USA (#135 nationally). The profile is a poor defense (#134) paired with a poor offense (#133). Schedule math puts the season at 2.3 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 3.0. 10 games project as clear underdog spots (Marshall, Nevada, Jacksonville State, Kansas, Delaware, Florida International, Kennesaw State, Western Kentucky, Liberty, New Mexico State). The season turns on 2 close games: Murray State, Sam Houston.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 3-9 | 2-6 | #127 | #110 | #128 | #57 |
Derek Mason — year 3, 6-17 career.
OC: returning
DC: returning
Mason 6-17; fighting hard despite limitations; back-to-back late wins over Sam Houston and NMSU; projected 135th
36% overall, ranked #122 nationally.
Offense 34% · Defense 37%
72 returning starts, 11 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs Murray State | FCS | +1.5 | 55% | Swing |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | @ Marshall | #92 / -6.4 | -22.1 | 6% | Upset needed |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Nevada | #112 / -12.2 | -11.3 | 20% | Upset needed |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ Jacksonville State | #98 / -7.7 | -20.8 | 7% | Upset needed |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ Kansas | #57 / +3.7 | -32.2 | 2% | Upset needed |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-13 | vs Delaware | #114 / -13.0 | -10.5 | 21% | Upset needed |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-20 | @ Florida International | #118 / -13.7 | -14.8 | 14% | Upset needed |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-28 | vs Kennesaw State | #105 / -9.3 | -14.2 | 14% | Upset needed |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs Western Kentucky | #86 / -5.3 | -18.2 | 9% | Upset needed |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ Liberty | #93 / -6.4 | -22.1 | 6% | Upset needed |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ Sam Houston | #136 / -26.3 | -2.2 | 43% | Lean loss |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs New Mexico State | #123 / -16.4 | -7.1 | 29% | Upset needed |
0.87
expected wins across 4 games
Murray State, Marshall, Nevada, Jacksonville State
0.51
expected wins across 4 games
Kansas, Delaware, Florida International, Kennesaw State
0.88
expected wins across 4 games
Western Kentucky, Liberty, Sam Houston, New Mexico State
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Roman Gagliano
returning (sophomore) limited sample
Started both late wins; 7.0 yds per dropback 8.3 yds per carry; dual-threat; led late-season turnaround
Late Wins · 2
Fighting hard despite limitations; back-to-back wins over Sam Houston and NMSU to end year; Gagliano started both
Gagliano Dual · 7.0
7.0 yds per dropback and 8.3 yds per carry; can move chains with arm and legs; led late wins
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Kentucky | #86 | -5.3 | #73 | #101 | 32% | #133 |
| 2 | Liberty | #93 | -6.4 | #66 | #104 | 57% | #49 |
| 3 | Jacksonville State | #98 | -7.7 | #77 | #107 | 57% | #47 |
| 4 | Kennesaw State | #105 | -9.3 | #101 | #97 | 49% | #83 |
| 5 | Delaware | #114 | -13.0 | #96 | #126 | 62% | #25 |
| 6 | Florida International | #118 | -13.7 | #100 | #122 | 47% | #95 |
| 7 | New Mexico State | #123 | -16.4 | #118 | #113 | 51% | #73 |
| 8 | Missouri State | #126 | -18.7 | #122 | #121 | 34% | #128 |
| 9 | Middle Tennessee | #135 | -26.0 | #133 | #134 | 36% | #122 |
| 10 | Sam Houston | #136 | -26.3 | #131 | #135 | 49% | #80 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.