A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Missouri Tigers enters 2026 rated 10th in the SEC (#20 nationally). The profile is an elite defense (#15) paired with a strong offense (#24). Schedule math puts the season at 7.3 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 7.3. 1 game project as clear underdog spots (Georgia). The season turns on 5 close games: Florida, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Texas, Oklahoma.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 8-5 | 4-4 | #21 | #47 | #10 | #116 |
Eli Drinkwitz — year 7, 46-29 career.
OC: Chip Lindsey (NEW)
DC: returning
Lindsey replaces outgoing OC
51% overall, ranked #70 nationally.
Offense 59% · Defense 43%
83 returning starts, 11 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-04 | vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff | FCS | +42.3 | 100% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | @ Kansas | #57 / +3.7 | +8.6 | 75% | Lean win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Troy | #90 / -6.0 | +23.3 | 95% | Should win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ Mississippi State | #52 / +3.9 | +8.4 | 74% | Lean win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs Florida | #19 / +14.9 | +2.4 | 57% | Swing |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs Texas A&M | #9 / +20.3 | -3.0 | 41% | Lean loss |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | @ Ole Miss | #16 / +15.9 | -3.6 | 39% | Lean loss |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | @ Arkansas | #47 / +5.0 | +7.3 | 71% | Lean win |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs Texas | #6 / +23.7 | -6.4 | 31% | Lean loss |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ Georgia | #4 / +25.5 | -13.2 | 16% | Upset needed |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs Kentucky | #53 / +3.8 | +13.5 | 84% | Should win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs Oklahoma | #12 / +17.2 | +0.1 | 50% | Swing |
3.43
expected wins across 4 games
Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kansas, Troy, Mississippi State
2.08
expected wins across 4 games
Florida, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Arkansas
1.82
expected wins across 4 games
Texas, Georgia, Kentucky, Oklahoma
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Austin Simmons
returning (was Wally Pipp'd) limited sample
Lefty with sexy deep ball; 15 of 45 completions went 20+ yds; 5 INT 5 sacks in 84 dropbacks
Robert Woodyard Jr. (LB, from Auburn)
Tackles on 14.7% of snaps / 8 run stops; 245 lbs; replaces Josiah Trotter
Yds Per Dropback 2025 · 7
Elite pass defense efficiency
Sack Rate 2025 · 13
Elite pressure despite losing all 3 sack leaders
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | #4 | +25.5 | #5 | #5 | 68% | #9 |
| 2 | Texas | #6 | +23.7 | #7 | #8 | 68% | #6 |
| 3 | Texas A&M | #9 | +20.3 | #10 | #14 | 65% | #15 |
| 4 | LSU | #10 | +20.2 | #21 | #2 | 61% | #30 |
| 5 | Alabama | #11 | +18.2 | #32 | #4 | 48% | #90 |
| 6 | Oklahoma | #12 | +17.2 | #27 | #10 | 68% | #7 |
| 7 | Tennessee | #15 | +16.0 | #4 | #50 | 62% | #26 |
| 8 | Ole Miss | #16 | +15.9 | #11 | #25 | 61% | #28 |
| 9 | Florida | #19 | +14.9 | #39 | #12 | 66% | #11 |
| 10 | Missouri | #20 | +14.8 | #24 | #15 | 51% | #70 |
| 11 | South Carolina | #24 | +12.1 | #44 | #21 | 68% | #5 |
| 12 | Auburn | #26 | +11.2 | #55 | #18 | 57% | #46 |
| 13 | Vanderbilt | #31 | +10.0 | #15 | #56 | 44% | #106 |
| 14 | Arkansas | #47 | +5.0 | #13 | #91 | 55% | #56 |
| 15 | Mississippi State | #52 | +3.9 | #41 | #76 | 48% | #86 |
| 16 | Kentucky | #53 | +3.8 | #75 | #36 | 46% | #98 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.