A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Missouri State Bears enters 2026 rated 8th in the Conference USA (#126 nationally). The profile is a poor defense (#121) paired with a poor offense (#122). Schedule math puts the season at 3.6 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 3.9. 9 games project as clear underdog spots (Texas A&M, Marshall, SMU, Western Kentucky, Kennesaw State, Delaware, Florida International, Jacksonville State, Liberty). The season turns on 1 close game: New Mexico State.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 7-6 | 5-3 | #108 | #79 | #118 | #120 |
Casey Woods — year 1, N/A (new hire) career.
OC: Mark Cala (NEW from UTEP)
DC: NEW
Woods was excellent SMU OC; worked for Bill Clark at UAB; Beard left for Coastal and took players; almost entirely new two-deep
34% overall, ranked #128 nationally.
Offense 25% · Defense 44%
59 returning starts, 11 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | @ Texas A&M | #9 / +20.3 | -41.5 | 1% | Upset needed |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Lindenwood | FCS | +8.8 | 75% | Lean win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs Marshall | #92 / -6.4 | -9.8 | 23% | Upset needed |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ SMU | #28 / +10.9 | -32.1 | 2% | Upset needed |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-08 | @ Western Kentucky | #86 / -5.3 | -15.9 | 12% | Upset needed |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-14 | vs Kennesaw State | #105 / -9.3 | -6.9 | 30% | Upset needed |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-20 | @ Delaware | #114 / -13.0 | -8.2 | 26% | Upset needed |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-28 | vs Sam Houston | #136 / -26.3 | +10.1 | 78% | Lean win |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | @ Florida International | #118 / -13.7 | -7.5 | 28% | Upset needed |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | vs New Mexico State | #123 / -16.4 | +0.2 | 51% | Swing |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ Jacksonville State | #98 / -7.7 | -13.5 | 16% | Upset needed |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs Liberty | #93 / -6.4 | -9.8 | 23% | Upset needed |
1.00
expected wins across 4 games
Texas A&M, Lindenwood, Marshall, SMU
1.46
expected wins across 4 games
Western Kentucky, Kennesaw State, Delaware, Sam Houston
1.17
expected wins across 4 games
Florida International, New Mexico State, Jacksonville State, Liberty
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Skyler Locklear vs Henry Belin IV
battle (UTEP transfer vs Duke transfer) limited sample
Both seniors; Locklear followed OC Cala from UTEP; Belin from Duke; almost entirely new offense around them
Beard Departure
Beard left for Coastal Carolina took truckload of players; Woods hire strong (SMU OC Bill Clark UAB); almost entirely new two-deep
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Kentucky | #86 | -5.3 | #73 | #101 | 32% | #133 |
| 2 | Liberty | #93 | -6.4 | #66 | #104 | 57% | #49 |
| 3 | Jacksonville State | #98 | -7.7 | #77 | #107 | 57% | #47 |
| 4 | Kennesaw State | #105 | -9.3 | #101 | #97 | 49% | #83 |
| 5 | Delaware | #114 | -13.0 | #96 | #126 | 62% | #25 |
| 6 | Florida International | #118 | -13.7 | #100 | #122 | 47% | #95 |
| 7 | New Mexico State | #123 | -16.4 | #118 | #113 | 51% | #73 |
| 8 | Missouri State | #126 | -18.7 | #122 | #121 | 34% | #128 |
| 9 | Middle Tennessee | #135 | -26.0 | #133 | #134 | 36% | #122 |
| 10 | Sam Houston | #136 | -26.3 | #131 | #135 | 49% | #80 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.