A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Navy Midshipmen is the highest-rated team in the American at #63 nationally. The profile is a middling defense (#77) paired with an above average offense (#58). Schedule math puts the season at 8.4 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 8.1. 1 game project as clear underdog spots (Notre Dame). The season turns on 2 close games: Air Force, UTSA.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 11-2 | 7-1 | #47 | #26 | #73 | #56 |
Brian Newberry — year 4, 26-12 career.
OC: Drew Cronic
DC: returning
Cronic modernized option offense; more willing to pass when numbers right
47% overall, ranked #93 nationally.
Offense 33% · Defense 61%
149 returning starts, 0 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs Towson | FCS | +28.6 | 97% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | @ Florida Atlantic | #94 / -7.1 | +5.7 | 67% | Lean win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-25 | @ UAB | #124 / -18.1 | +16.7 | 89% | Should win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | @ Air Force | #79 / -2.4 | +1.0 | 53% | Swing |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs Tulsa | #96 / -7.6 | +11.2 | 80% | Should win |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | @ UTSA | #73 / -1.5 | +0.1 | 50% | Swing |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | vs North Texas | #109 / -11.8 | +15.4 | 87% | Should win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs Notre Dame neutral | #3 / +25.8 | -24.7 | 4% | Upset needed |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs Temple | #102 / -8.7 | +12.3 | 82% | Should win |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs Memphis | #70 / -1.1 | +4.7 | 64% | Lean win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ Charlotte | #138 / -32.4 | +31.0 | 98% | Should win |
| Wk 15 | 2026-12-12 | vs Army neutral | #83 / -3.0 | +4.1 | 63% | Lean win |
3.06
expected wins across 4 games
Towson, Florida Atlantic, UAB, Air Force
2.22
expected wins across 4 games
Tulsa, UTSA, North Texas, Notre Dame
3.07
expected wins across 4 games
Temple, Memphis, Charlotte, Army
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Braxton Woodson
returning (was backup) limited sample
19 appearances 2 starts; 6.7 yds per carry 9 rush TDs; 353 pass yds 2 TDs; must replace Horvath's massive production
Record 2Yr · 21-5
21-5 over past 2 seasons; aggressive run defense great 3rd-and-long pass rush; Cronic modernized option
Horvath Career · 5482
Horvath: 2549 rush yds 33 TDs + 2933 pass yds 25 TDs over 24 starts; elite option QB production
Def Rank Range · 53-75
Defensive SP+ between 53rd and 75th every season since Newberry arrived as DC in 2019
Schedule Advantage
Plays only 2 of 6 closest projected teams in conference; underdog only vs Notre Dame; 4+ point favorite in all but 1 American game
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 17 | Navy at UTSA | First-ever Navy-UTSA game; UTSA overachieves by 15.4 PPG at home; could hitch Navy's title plans |
| Nov. 21 | Memphis at Navy | Memphis hinge team conclusion; either carves title game spot or determines who makes it in their absence |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navy | #63 | +1.1 | #58 | #77 | 47% | #93 |
| 2 | Memphis | #70 | -1.1 | #56 | #95 | 42% | #111 |
| 3 | UTSA | #73 | -1.5 | #47 | #102 | 54% | #57 |
| 4 | East Carolina | #76 | -2.0 | #84 | #71 | 42% | #110 |
| 5 | South Florida | #80 | -2.8 | #59 | #98 | 41% | #113 |
| 6 | Army | #83 | -3.0 | #81 | #82 | 50% | #75 |
| 7 | Tulane | #87 | -5.5 | #99 | #86 | 40% | #117 |
| 8 | Florida Atlantic | #94 | -7.1 | #60 | #120 | 64% | #19 |
| 9 | Tulsa | #96 | -7.6 | #91 | #103 | 62% | #23 |
| 10 | Temple | #102 | -8.7 | #74 | #117 | 53% | #64 |
| 11 | UConn | #107 | -11.2 | #107 | #108 | 31% | #134 |
| 12 | North Texas | #109 | -11.8 | #89 | #123 | 32% | #132 |
| 13 | Rice | #120 | -14.7 | #119 | #110 | 39% | #120 |
| 14 | UAB | #124 | -18.1 | #108 | #132 | 35% | #125 |
| 15 | Charlotte | #138 | -32.4 | #137 | #138 | 43% | #107 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.