A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Nebraska Cornhuskers enters 2026 rated 10th in the Big Ten (#37 nationally). The profile is a strong defense (#39) paired with an above average offense (#49). Schedule math puts the season at 6.1 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 6.0. 4 games project as clear underdog spots (Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State, Iowa). The season turns on 3 close games: Washington, Illinois, Rutgers.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 7-6 | 4-5 | #46 | #57 | #44 | #69 |
Matt Rhule — year 4, 19-19 career.
OC: Dana Holgorsen
DC: Rob Aurich (NEW)
Aurich is 4th DC in 5 seasons; fresh off massive course correction at SDSU; Rhule reliant on transfers for defensive turnaround
69% overall, ranked #3 nationally.
Offense 69% · Defense 69%
145 returning starts, 12 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs Ohio | #117 / -13.6 | +23.8 | 95% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs Bowling Green | #115 / -13.3 | +23.5 | 95% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | vs North Dakota | FCS | +35.2 | 99% | Should win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | @ Michigan State | #67 / +0.4 | +4.8 | 65% | Lean win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs Maryland | #55 / +3.8 | +6.4 | 69% | Lean win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs Indiana | #5 / +24.5 | -14.3 | 14% | Upset needed |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | @ Oregon | #2 / +28.3 | -23.1 | 5% | Upset needed |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs Washington | #21 / +14.5 | -4.3 | 37% | Lean loss |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | @ Illinois | #33 / +9.3 | -4.1 | 37% | Lean loss |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ Rutgers | #62 / +1.8 | +3.4 | 60% | Swing |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs Ohio State | #1 / +31.8 | -21.6 | 6% | Upset needed |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-27 | @ Iowa | #22 / +13.6 | -8.4 | 26% | Upset needed |
3.54
expected wins across 4 games
Ohio, Bowling Green, North Dakota, Michigan State
1.25
expected wins across 4 games
Maryland, Indiana, Oregon, Washington
1.30
expected wins across 4 games
Illinois, Rutgers, Ohio State, Iowa
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Anthony Colandrea
transfer (UNLV) experienced
Flawed but incredibly enjoyable; scramble-heavy; fewer sacks than Raiola; better big-play seeker; 9 career multi-INT games shows risk
Rhule Year3
At Temple/Baylor Year 3 was 21-7 34.0 avg SP+; at Nebraska Year 3 was 7-6 46th (stagnation)
Losing Streak · 9
Nine straight sub-.500 seasons before Rhule; two straight winning seasons now but sense of stagnation
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | #1 | +31.8 | #2 | #1 | 60% | #31 |
| 2 | Oregon | #2 | +28.3 | #1 | #3 | 66% | #12 |
| 3 | Indiana | #5 | +24.5 | #9 | #6 | 56% | #52 |
| 4 | USC | #13 | +16.8 | #6 | #29 | 65% | #14 |
| 5 | Michigan | #14 | +16.1 | #20 | #13 | 63% | #20 |
| 6 | Penn State | #17 | +15.7 | #14 | #23 | 52% | #67 |
| 7 | Washington | #21 | +14.5 | #22 | #19 | 65% | #16 |
| 8 | Iowa | #22 | +13.6 | #38 | #17 | 44% | #104 |
| 9 | Illinois | #33 | +9.3 | #28 | #44 | 50% | #76 |
| 10 | Nebraska | #37 | +7.7 | #49 | #39 | 69% | #3 |
| 11 | Minnesota | #45 | +5.2 | #71 | #24 | 68% | #8 |
| 12 | UCLA | #46 | +5.1 | #52 | #54 | 67% | #10 |
| 13 | Northwestern | #49 | +4.6 | #78 | #28 | 57% | #44 |
| 14 | Maryland | #55 | +3.8 | #65 | #43 | 71% | #2 |
| 15 | Wisconsin | #61 | +1.8 | #106 | #22 | 59% | #35 |
| 16 | Rutgers | #62 | +1.8 | #37 | #90 | 47% | #92 |
| 17 | Michigan State | #67 | +0.4 | #61 | #69 | 46% | #97 |
| 18 | Purdue | #82 | -2.9 | #86 | #79 | 58% | #40 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.