A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
Nevada Wolf Pack enters 2026 rated 7th in the Mountain West (#112 nationally). The profile is a below average defense (#96) paired with a poor offense (#117). Schedule math puts the season at 5.2 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 4.8. 5 games project as clear underdog spots (Air Force, North Dakota State, UCLA, New Mexico, UNLV). The season turns on 3 close games: Western Kentucky, Northern Illinois, Hawai'i.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 3-9 | 2-6 | #116 | #133 | #81 | #37 |
Jeff Choate — year 3, 6-19 career.
OC: Brett Bartolone (NEW)
DC: Kane Ioane
Choate 6-19 but engineered brief improvement in all 3 units; Bartolone returns to Reno after Jackson State/Colorado
48% overall, ranked #91 nationally.
Offense 57% · Defense 39%
68 returning starts, 19 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-06 | vs Western Kentucky | #86 / -5.3 | -4.4 | 37% | Lean loss |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-13 | vs Montana State | FCS | +15.3 | 87% | Should win |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-19 | @ Middle Tennessee | #135 / -26.0 | +11.3 | 80% | Should win |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs Air Force | #79 / -2.4 | -7.3 | 29% | Upset needed |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ UTEP | #129 / -20.5 | +5.8 | 67% | Lean win |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | @ North Dakota State | #72 / -1.4 | -13.3 | 16% | Upset needed |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | vs San José State | #122 / -15.5 | +5.8 | 67% | Lean win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | @ UCLA | #46 / +5.1 | -19.8 | 8% | Upset needed |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs New Mexico | #68 / -0.5 | -9.2 | 24% | Upset needed |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ Northern Illinois | #125 / -18.2 | +3.5 | 61% | Swing |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs Hawai'i | #84 / -3.9 | -5.8 | 33% | Lean loss |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-29 | @ UNLV | #59 / +2.8 | -17.5 | 10% | Upset needed |
2.33
expected wins across 4 games
Western Kentucky, Montana State, Middle Tennessee, Air Force
1.58
expected wins across 4 games
UTEP, North Dakota State, San José State, UCLA
1.27
expected wins across 4 games
New Mexico, Northern Illinois, Hawai'i, UNLV
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Carter Jones
returning starter limited sample
Mediocre passing stats but survived as true freshman with little help; 3 senior OL starters return; leading rusher and 8 of 9 receivers gone
Choate Record · 6-19
6-19 but engineered brief improvement in all 3 units; never at same time; lost OC year 1 offense collapsed year 2
Labarbera Tfl · 18
End Dylan Labarbera 18 TFLs 6.5 sacks in 2025 star turn; solid size with Va'a 329 lbs and Gillespie 318
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNLV | #59 | +2.8 | #33 | #89 | 40% | #116 |
| 2 | New Mexico | #68 | -0.5 | #68 | #73 | 63% | #21 |
| 3 | North Dakota State | #72 | -1.4 | #82 | #67 | 52% | #65 |
| 4 | Air Force | #79 | -2.4 | #70 | #83 | 59% | #37 |
| 5 | Hawai'i | #84 | -3.9 | #69 | #93 | 45% | #101 |
| 6 | Wyoming | #106 | -9.6 | #124 | #58 | 40% | #118 |
| 7 | Nevada | #112 | -12.2 | #117 | #96 | 48% | #91 |
| 8 | San José State | #122 | -15.5 | #114 | #114 | 24% | #137 |
| 9 | Northern Illinois | #125 | -18.2 | #132 | #105 | 48% | #85 |
| 10 | UTEP | #129 | -20.5 | #129 | #119 | 35% | #126 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.