A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
New Mexico State Aggies enters 2026 rated 7th in the Conference USA (#123 nationally). The profile is a poor defense (#113) paired with a poor offense (#118). Schedule math puts the season at 4.7 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 5.0. 5 games project as clear underdog spots (Florida State, Hawai'i, New Mexico, Western Kentucky, Liberty). The season turns on 4 close games: Florida International, Jacksonville State, Missouri State, Delaware.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 4-8 | 2-6 | #123 | #112 | #121 | #78 |
Tony Sanchez — year 3, 7-17 career.
OC: David Yost
DC: returning
Sanchez stabilizing; attendance down 36% since 2023 Pavia run; Battle of I-10 absent for 3rd time since WWII
51% overall, ranked #73 nationally.
Offense 46% · Defense 55%
102 returning starts, 6 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-08-29 | @ Florida State | #35 / +8.8 | -27.7 | 3% | Upset needed |
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-06 | vs Mercyhurst | FCS | +11.1 | 80% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | @ Hawai'i | #84 / -3.9 | -15.0 | 13% | Upset needed |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs New Mexico | #68 / -0.5 | -13.4 | 16% | Upset needed |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-02 | vs Western Kentucky | #86 / -5.3 | -8.6 | 25% | Upset needed |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-07 | @ Florida International | #118 / -13.7 | -5.2 | 34% | Lean loss |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-22 | @ Sam Houston | #136 / -26.3 | +7.4 | 72% | Lean win |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-29 | vs Jacksonville State | #98 / -7.7 | -6.2 | 32% | Lean loss |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs Liberty | #93 / -6.4 | -7.5 | 28% | Upset needed |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ Missouri State | #126 / -18.7 | -0.2 | 49% | Swing |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs Delaware | #114 / -13.0 | -0.9 | 47% | Swing |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | @ Middle Tennessee | #135 / -26.0 | +7.1 | 71% | Lean win |
1.12
expected wins across 4 games
Florida State, Mercyhurst, Hawai'i, New Mexico
1.63
expected wins across 4 games
Western Kentucky, Florida International, Sam Houston, Jacksonville State
1.96
expected wins across 4 games
Liberty, Missouri State, Delaware, Middle Tennessee
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Adam Damante vs Trey Hedden
battle (returner vs Furman transfer) limited sample
Damante decent in 2 late starts; Hedden 2967 yds at Furman; receiving corps has promise with TK King
Attendance Drop · 36
Attendance down 36% since 2023 Pavia-led title run; Battle of I-10 absent 3rd time since WWII; hosting New Mexico helps
Close Losses 2025 · 1-4
Began 3-2 then lost 6 of 7 including 4 one-score losses; turnover-hunting defense ranked solid 64th in points allowed per drive
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Kentucky | #86 | -5.3 | #73 | #101 | 32% | #133 |
| 2 | Liberty | #93 | -6.4 | #66 | #104 | 57% | #49 |
| 3 | Jacksonville State | #98 | -7.7 | #77 | #107 | 57% | #47 |
| 4 | Kennesaw State | #105 | -9.3 | #101 | #97 | 49% | #83 |
| 5 | Delaware | #114 | -13.0 | #96 | #126 | 62% | #25 |
| 6 | Florida International | #118 | -13.7 | #100 | #122 | 47% | #95 |
| 7 | New Mexico State | #123 | -16.4 | #118 | #113 | 51% | #73 |
| 8 | Missouri State | #126 | -18.7 | #122 | #121 | 34% | #128 |
| 9 | Middle Tennessee | #135 | -26.0 | #133 | #134 | 36% | #122 |
| 10 | Sam Houston | #136 | -26.3 | #131 | #135 | 49% | #80 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.