A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
North Dakota State Bison enters 2026 rated 3rd in the Mountain West (#72 nationally). The profile is a middling defense (#67) paired with a below average offense (#82). Schedule math puts the season at 8.6 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 8.4. The season turns on 4 close games: Air Force, UNLV, New Mexico, Hawai'i.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
Tim Polasek — year 3, 26-3 career.
OC: returning
DC: returning
FCS dynasty moving up; won 10 of last 15 FCS titles; SP+ says would've been top-50 FBS multiple times; new QB new skill corps
52% overall, ranked #65 nationally.
Offense 45% · Defense 60%
0 returning starts, 23 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-08-29 | vs Jacksonville State | #98 / -7.7 | +8.8 | 75% | Lean win |
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | vs Fordham | FCS | +26.1 | 96% | Should win |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-13 | @ Air Force | #79 / -2.4 | -1.5 | 45% | Swing |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-20 | @ Sacramento State | #130 / -22.7 | +18.8 | 91% | Should win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-03 | vs Wyoming | #106 / -9.6 | +10.7 | 79% | Lean win |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | @ UNLV | #59 / +2.8 | -6.7 | 30% | Lean loss |
| Wk 7 | 2026-10-17 | vs Nevada | #112 / -12.2 | +13.3 | 84% | Should win |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ New Mexico | #68 / -0.5 | -3.4 | 40% | Lean loss |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-31 | vs UTEP | #129 / -20.5 | +21.6 | 94% | Should win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-15 | @ Hawai'i | #84 / -3.9 | +0.0 | 50% | Swing |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | vs Northern Illinois | #125 / -18.2 | +19.3 | 92% | Should win |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-27 | @ San José State | #122 / -15.5 | +11.6 | 81% | Should win |
3.08
expected wins across 4 games
Jacksonville State, Fordham, Air Force, Sacramento State
2.33
expected wins across 4 games
Wyoming, UNLV, Nevada, New Mexico
3.17
expected wins across 4 games
UTEP, Hawai'i, Northern Illinois, San José State
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Nathan Hayes
returning (was backup) limited sample
5th-year senior career backup; maturity creates solid floor; ceiling questionable; replacing Cole Payton
Fcs Titles · 10
Won 10 of last 15 FCS national titles (2011-15 2017-19 2021 2024); SP+ says would've been top-50 FBS multiple times
2025 Margin · 42.2-11.7
Outscored opponents 42.2 to 11.7 before stunning playoff upset; best team in years with Payton and Lance
Schedule Welcome
Trips to all 4 other primary contenders; serious Welcome newbie treatment from MWC schedule-makers
| Date | Matchup | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 10 | NDSU at UNLV | Big measuring-stick game for Bison; does physical FCS style translate to immediate FBS contention? |
| Oct. 24 | NDSU at New Mexico | Dakota Marker proxy game; Eck hosting NDSU; former SDSU assistant vs NDSU around same time of year |
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNLV | #59 | +2.8 | #33 | #89 | 40% | #116 |
| 2 | New Mexico | #68 | -0.5 | #68 | #73 | 63% | #21 |
| 3 | North Dakota State | #72 | -1.4 | #82 | #67 | 52% | #65 |
| 4 | Air Force | #79 | -2.4 | #70 | #83 | 59% | #37 |
| 5 | Hawai'i | #84 | -3.9 | #69 | #93 | 45% | #101 |
| 6 | Wyoming | #106 | -9.6 | #124 | #58 | 40% | #118 |
| 7 | Nevada | #112 | -12.2 | #117 | #96 | 48% | #91 |
| 8 | San José State | #122 | -15.5 | #114 | #114 | 24% | #137 |
| 9 | Northern Illinois | #125 | -18.2 | #132 | #105 | 48% | #85 |
| 10 | UTEP | #129 | -20.5 | #129 | #119 | 35% | #126 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.