A data-backed preview built from the committed 2026 preseason SP+ snapshot, the CFBD schedule, and Bill Connelly's extracted conference preview tables. Every projection traces to a stored payload.
North Texas Mean Green enters 2026 rated 12th in the American (#109 nationally). The profile is a poor defense (#123) paired with a below average offense (#89). Schedule math puts the season at 5.0 expected wins, against Connelly's independent 5.3. 6 games project as clear underdog spots (Indiana, UNLV, Texas State, Navy, UTSA, Tulane). The season turns on 2 close games: Tulsa, Florida Atlantic.
Bars run left (worst) to right (best): a longer bar is a better national rank. Special-teams ratings are volatile year to year.
| 2025 result | Record | Conf | SP+ rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where they finished | 12-2 | 7-2 | #22 | #1 | #79 | #88 |
Neal Brown — year 1, N/A (new hire) career.
OC: NEW
DC: NEW
Brown excellent at Troy 31-8 from 2016-18; Eric Morris left for Oklahoma State took players with him; only 1 returnee with 200+ snaps
32% overall, ranked #132 nationally.
Offense 28% · Defense 35%
4 returning starts, 10 redshirt freshmen.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opp SP+ | Proj margin | Win % | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 2026-09-05 | @ Indiana | #5 / +24.5 | -38.8 | 1% | Upset needed |
| Wk 2 | 2026-09-12 | vs UNLV | #59 / +2.8 | -12.1 | 18% | Upset needed |
| Wk 3 | 2026-09-20 | @ Texas State | #89 / -5.9 | -8.4 | 26% | Upset needed |
| Wk 4 | 2026-09-26 | vs Houston Christian | FCS | +15.7 | 88% | Should win |
| Wk 5 | 2026-10-02 | @ Tulsa | #96 / -7.6 | -6.7 | 30% | Lean loss |
| Wk 6 | 2026-10-10 | vs Charlotte | #138 / -32.4 | +23.1 | 95% | Should win |
| Wk 8 | 2026-10-24 | @ Navy | #63 / +1.1 | -15.4 | 13% | Upset needed |
| Wk 9 | 2026-10-29 | vs Florida Atlantic | #94 / -7.1 | -2.2 | 43% | Lean loss |
| Wk 10 | 2026-11-07 | vs Rice | #120 / -14.7 | +5.4 | 66% | Lean win |
| Wk 11 | 2026-11-14 | @ UTSA | #73 / -1.5 | -12.8 | 17% | Upset needed |
| Wk 12 | 2026-11-21 | @ Tulane | #87 / -5.5 | -8.8 | 25% | Upset needed |
| Wk 13 | 2026-11-28 | vs UAB | #124 / -18.1 | +8.8 | 75% | Lean win |
1.32
expected wins across 4 games
Indiana, UNLV, Texas State, Houston Christian
1.81
expected wins across 4 games
Tulsa, Charlotte, Navy, Florida Atlantic
1.83
expected wins across 4 games
Rice, UTSA, Tulane, UAB
Exact Poisson-binomial over the projected game probabilities. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome, and the percentages are absolute.
Tayven Jackson vs Chaston Ditta
battle (UCF transfer vs ECU transfer) limited sample
Jackson from UCF; Ditta from ECU; Chris Jimerson Jr. redshirt freshman also in mix; almost no returnees on offense
Udoka Ezeani (OLB, from UTEP)
6th-year senior; 12.5 TFLs 5 sacks 9 run stops 2 FF; played at Missouri State/Boise State/UTEP
Returnees 200Snaps · 1
Only 1 returnee (DT Terrell Washington) with 200+ snaps; zero offensive returnees with 100+ snaps; complete rebuild
| # | Team | SP+ rank | Rating | Off | Def | Ret prod | Ret rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navy | #63 | +1.1 | #58 | #77 | 47% | #93 |
| 2 | Memphis | #70 | -1.1 | #56 | #95 | 42% | #111 |
| 3 | UTSA | #73 | -1.5 | #47 | #102 | 54% | #57 |
| 4 | East Carolina | #76 | -2.0 | #84 | #71 | 42% | #110 |
| 5 | South Florida | #80 | -2.8 | #59 | #98 | 41% | #113 |
| 6 | Army | #83 | -3.0 | #81 | #82 | 50% | #75 |
| 7 | Tulane | #87 | -5.5 | #99 | #86 | 40% | #117 |
| 8 | Florida Atlantic | #94 | -7.1 | #60 | #120 | 64% | #19 |
| 9 | Tulsa | #96 | -7.6 | #91 | #103 | 62% | #23 |
| 10 | Temple | #102 | -8.7 | #74 | #117 | 53% | #64 |
| 11 | UConn | #107 | -11.2 | #107 | #108 | 31% | #134 |
| 12 | North Texas | #109 | -11.8 | #89 | #123 | 32% | #132 |
| 13 | Rice | #120 | -14.7 | #119 | #110 | 39% | #120 |
| 14 | UAB | #124 | -18.1 | #108 | #132 | 35% | #125 |
| 15 | Charlotte | #138 | -32.4 | #137 | #138 | 43% | #107 |
Sp 2026. Committed preseason SP+ snapshot data/external/cfbd_2026/sp_plus_2026.csv via cfb_model_lab.preseason.load_sp_plus; CFBD /ratings/sp returns zero rows for 2026.
Schedule. data/external/cfbd_2026/schedule_2026.csv (CFBD /games snapshot, regular season only).
Connelly. Bill Connelly ESPN+ 2026 conference previews extracted to data/external/connelly_*_2026/.
Projection Method. SP+ differential plus 2.5-point home field, mapped to win probability by a logistic with scale 8.0 (illustrative scale; not validated for this SP+ snapshot). Win distribution is an exact Poisson-binomial assuming independent games. Not a betting model and not the repo's StackedEnsemble forecast.
Lower Division. FCS/lower-division opponents absent from the FBS SP+ table are assigned a -25.0 rating placeholder.